Global oil supply risks are increasing as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts key shipping routes and energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency has warned.
The IEA said growing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are adding uncertainty to the market and raising concerns over global energy security.
For now, oil and gas markets have been supported by several cushioning factors.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have continued moving significant volumes of oil through alternative routes, while producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela and Kazakhstan have increased exports to offset some of the lost supply.
China has also helped stabilise the market by cutting crude imports by nearly 50% compared with pre-war levels. Emergency stock releases are providing further support.
Since the IEA announced coordinated action on 11 March to make 400 million barrels available, around 290 million barrels have been released by member countries.
More barrels are still entering the market and IEA nations retain more than one billion barrels in government-controlled emergency reserves.
However, Executive Director Fatih Birol warned there was no room for complacency as hostilities escalate and commercial inventories continue to fall.
The main pressure is now in refined products rather than crude oil.
Refinery activity and fuel production have not recovered as quickly as crude deliveries, leaving diesel and petrol markets significantly tighter.
That could increase pressure on transport costs, inflation and household bills if disruption continues.
The IEA said a full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains essential to prevent a further deterioration in global energy security.
Natural gas markets have so far proved more resilient. Most of the liquefied natural gas lost because of disruption around Hormuz has been replaced by cargoes from other markets, led by the US.
However, further delays to Gulf exports could keep global LNG markets tight for longer and increase competition between Europe and Asia for available supplies.
The IEA said markets remain protected by emergency stocks and alternative supply routes but warned those buffers will weaken, if the conflict continues and energy infrastructure faces further disruption.
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