September’s registrations flattered the market, but the retailers who do well next year will be the ones who can prove what their activity actually delivered, writes Jacqui Barker, Keyloop’s VP of global strategy and engagement.
You know it’s October when Strictly is back on the telly, the clocks have just gone back and every finance director in the country opens a spreadsheet marked 2027 budget.
It’s the time of year when we look back at what worked, what didn’t and what we’re brave enough to repeat, and this year the starting point is a good one.
According to the SMMT, the UK new car market grew 12.1% in September to 350,518 units, its strongest September since 2017 and the tenth consecutive month of growth. Retail is part of that story as well as fleet, because fleet and business registrations made up 57.5% of September volume, but private registrations are up 12.8% year to date – so this isn’t a market being carried by one channel alone.
The electric picture is more mixed
The electric picture is more mixed. Battery electric registrations hit 99,199 in September, up 36.3% and the highest figure ever recorded for the month, a 28.3% share of the month’s market. Year to date, BEVs have reached 26.2% of new registrations, which is growing but still short of the 33% ZEV mandate for 2026.
The SMMT’s own calculation is that hitting 33% on its latest outlook of a 2.183 million-unit market would need another 265,000 BEV registrations in the final quarter alone.
I wouldn’t bet on that, and I suspect most retailers wouldn’t either. Fuel prices at the pump are surely nudging more buyers towards electric, but so are the Electric Car Grant and a much wider choice of models. But price and incentives only explain part of it.
As we discussed on my Drivetime podcast with She’s Electric founder Rebecca Day, many customers need to experience an EV in person before they buy one, and the decision is as emotional as it’s logical.
That choice is changing who’s winning. The UK’s best-selling car in September was the Jaecoo 7, and EY noted that a Chinese manufacturer took the top spot while two more Chinese models featured in the top five BEVs. Even the supposedly settled fuel types are moving, with EY’s analysis showing petrol down 6.7% but diesel up 11.5% year on year in September.
Anyone building a 2027 plan on last year’s assumptions about brand mix or powertrain mix is working from an out-of-date map.
Identify what your business created
Here’s where I think the conversation needs to shift. A strong market is the most dangerous time to stop asking hard questions, because when registrations rise across the board almost every campaign looks like a success and almost every sales team looks like it’s performing.
The real test is whether you can separate what the market gave you from what your business created.
Plate-change months are a perfect example: a busy September showroom tells you very little unless you know how many of those customers came from your own activity and how many would have walked in anyway. It’s the question we hear from retailers more than any other, which is how to measure the impact of what they’re doing, and it’s worth answering properly before the 2027 budget is locked.
Track a small number of things well
My advice is to track a small number of things well rather than a large number loosely. Start with audience growth, meaning whether more people are engaging with your brand and your stock, and from which sources, but don’t stop there.
In September, sessions across the dealer websites we power in the UK were down 13% on last year while enquiries were up 13%. I wouldn’t read that as less demand.
Pew Research found that Google users clicked a traditional result in 8% of visits when an AI summary appeared, against 15% when one didn’t, so fewer visits may simply mean more of the research is happening before a customer reaches your site. That’s why search visibility needs a new measure, because being named in the answer is increasingly how a shortlist forms.
Then look at lead quality and conversion, because enquiry volume is flattering, but what counts is how many enquiries become appointments and how many appointments become sales.
Pair that with cost per sale by channel, which is the only honest way to decide where the next pound should go, and finish with customer retention, because a customer who comes back for service and buys again is worth far more than the top of the funnel suggests, particularly while so many buyers are making a first electric purchase and looking for someone they trust.
The retailers who’ve connected the picture
None of this is exotic. The challenge is that these measures usually sit in different systems, owned by different teams and reviewed at different times, and the retailers I see making the best decisions are the ones who’ve connected the picture.
When that happens, they can follow a customer from first click to final handover – rather than reading five separate reports and hoping they agree. I’d add one more thing that rarely appears in a KPI pack, which is the shape of the retail network itself. As experienced people retire and groups consider mergers and acquisitions, the retail footprint is changing, and I expect that to accelerate between now and the end of the year. That affects local market share and who your competitors will be in 2027.
So, my advice for October is simple. Use the strong September numbers as a reason to be confident, not complacent. Look honestly at what drove your 2026 results, decide which five or six measures will tell you whether 2027 is going to plan and make sure you can see them in one place. The market is doing its part. The question is whether you can prove you’re doing yours.
Author: Jacqui Barker, vice president of global strategy and engagement, Keyloop
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