The global economy is increasingly anchored to a well-above-2°C warming trajectory, according to a report by risk intelligence organisation LSEG.
New research has found even though climate action is accelerating, it is not fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
LSEG’s analysis shows that a decade after the Paris Agreement, accelerating climate action, stronger policy commitments and the rapid deployment of clean technologies have made the most extreme warming scenarios increasingly unlikely.
However it also shows that meeting countries’ current 2035 climate commitments and maintaining emissions at those levels would imply approximately 2.35°C of warming by 2100.
Continued reductions beyond 2035 could lower this to around 2.16°C, while faster progress towards net-zero commitments could reduce warming further to 2.08°C.
Jaakko Kooroshy, Global Head of Sustainable Investment Research at LSEG, said: “A decade after Paris, the energy transition has materially changed the outlook for global warming.
“Hot House scenarios, where warming exceeds 3°C or even 4°C, are looking increasingly unlikely, but the global economy appears increasingly anchored to a ‘well-above’ 2°C trajectory.”
The findings still show hazards such as heat and drought account for around 73% of the direct physical impact on global economic growth. Physical climate shocks can also spread through supply chains, trade and demand.
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