Australia has an opportunity to make energy equity a central theme of global climate diplomacy as it prepares to host COP31, according to a new analysis.
The authors argue that while countries are rapidly expanding renewable energy generation, insufficient attention is being paid to who will benefit from the world’s growing supply of clean electricity.
Demand from energy-intensive industries, particularly data centres, is expected to increase significantly over the coming years. Globally, data centres are projected to consume as much electricity as Japan by 2030, while around 730 million people still lack access to electricity and approximately 2 billion people do not have access to clean cooking.
The analysis highlights Africa as the region most affected by energy poverty, accounting for 85% of the world’s energy-poor population. Large parts of the Pacific also continue to face limited electricity access, including Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), most future renewable energy infrastructure will be built in developed economies.
Just 5% of new global electricity generation capacity expected by 2050 is projected to be added in Africa, despite the continent accounting for an estimated 25% of the global population by then.
The authors argue this imbalance risks widening existing inequalities while failing to meet the basic energy needs required for healthcare, education, communications and economic development.
The IEA’s “Achieving access for all” scenario suggests universal electricity access could largely be achieved by 2035 through annual investment of $23 billion. The analysis argues this would require a significant shift in international priorities but would support both climate goals and human development.
The authors also warn that failing to improve energy access could encourage greater fossil fuel use, increase demand for renewable materials beyond current projections or contribute to geopolitical instability.
They conclude that Australia, working alongside Pacific partners at COP31, has an opportunity to place fairness and universal energy access at the centre of global climate action.
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