August’s drop in new LCV registrations came as no surprise, writes Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor, Solera Cap HPI.
According to the latest report from the SMMT, new LCV registrations in August were down 49% month-on-month.
This decline is to be expected, as August traditionally coincides with the peak holiday season and comes immediately before the introduction of the new September registration plate. Compared to August 2025 registrations were up 80 units.
Views from the block – no sign of seasonal lull
Feedback from industry contacts over the past month suggests that market conditions have remained relatively stable, with little overall movement in used market prices. This is supported by our research data, which indicates that only minor guide price adjustments were necessary, affecting a relatively small number of models.
Retail demand for used LCVs remained resilient despite the seasonal slowdown typically associated with late summer. Similarly, the wholesale market showed little sign of the traditional lull, with strong attendance and bidding activity at both physical and online auctions.
Of particular note is the renewed interest in minibuses. Following several months of declining demand and falling guide values, market sentiment appears to be improving, with evidence emerging of an upward movement in market prices.
Less noise over damaged stock
Whilst damaged stock continues to present challenges to auctioneers and vendors alike, fewer concerns have been raised over the past month and there have been reports of such stock selling more easily.
Since high mileages, damage and general wear and tear tend to go hand in hand, recent adjustments we’ve made to mileage depreciation rates have resulted in lower guide values beyond the 80,000 mile mark. This has enabled vendors to set more realistic reserve prices, reducing the gap between their selling price aspirations and buyer demand.
Auction officials continue to remind us that trade buyers are placing increasing importance on documented evidence that servicing has been completed in line with the manufacturer’s recommendations.
This is particularly important on vehicles that may have an unexpired portion of the manufacturer’s warranty, which is only transferable to a subsequent owner if the service schedules have been strictly adhered to.
Trade buyers are also naturally cautious about vehicles fitted with wet timing belts. This isn’t suprising when considering reports of catastrophic damage to engines when such belts fail and the generally high cost of scheduled belt replacement.
Growth in used BEV LCV sales
This chart shows how trade sales of BEV LCVs have increased over the past 5 years, expressed as a percentage of the total trade sales.
In the early days, publishing used guide values for battery electric (BEV) LCVs was a significant challenge, and in some sectors it remains so today.
Limited market evidence, combined with rapid advances in battery technology and vehicle design, meant that established valuation processes could not always be relied upon. In many cases, monthly pricing reviews had to be conducted with little or no supporting market data.
As time progressed, however, increasing numbers of BEV models began entering the used market, providing a stronger foundation for valuation decisions and improving confidence in the guide values.
Auction company contacts report a clear shift in buyer behaviour towards BEV LCVs. What was once a market dominated by a small number of buyers cautiously dipping their toe in the water has developed into one supported by a much broader and more diverse buyer base.
Guide price changes in this edition
With guide price adjustments of -0.7% at 3 year / 60K and -0.7% overall for the October edition, the movements we’ve made reflect the relatively stable current market conditions.
The charts below are intended to give subscribers an indication of how the guide prices have moved in each sector.
As always, the devil is in the detail and we always recommend using our valuation products to determine the actual guide price movements of individual models.
Used LCV cumulative guide price movements 3 years/60k
The chart below highlights the sharp fluctuations in guide price movements between 2020 and 2026.
Prices peaked in 2020 and 2021 during the height of the pandemic, before declining to more sustainable levels by late 2023.
Represented by the dashed line, the cumulative downward movement so far in 2026 is -9.6%.
Analysis of guide price performance of higher mileage vehicles
The charts below are based on our August research data. They represent both the distribution of used LCVs sold across mileage bands from 1,000 up to 300,000 miles, and the sales performance within each mileage band. By comparing the two charts, which share exactly the same horizontal axis, it can be determined how accurate the guide prices are for each of the mileage bands and what proportion of the sales data is represented within each of them.
As this analysis shows, whilst the research data volume drops off dramatically at the higher mileage bands, only a relatively low number sales records fall outside acceptable parameters. Those parameters being between 98% and 102% of CAP Average.
Anecdotal evidence from our meeting with trade contacts would suggest that, overall, the guide values are more accurate than ever at the higher mileage points. However, we are well aware of how volatile the market can be which is why mileage depreciation rates are under constant review across all sectors and model ranges.
Author: Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor, Solera Cap HPI
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