A powerful El Niño could develop this summer, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought, floods and crop disruption across large parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization has warned.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific, when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm and start to shift rainfall, winds and temperatures around the globe.
It usually occurs every two to seven years and can last for nine to 12 months but its effects can travel far beyond the Pacific, shaping weather from Asia and Africa to the Americas and Europe.
The phrase “super El Niño” is often used informally for very powerful events but the WMO does not use it as an official category.
What matters is the strength, timing and duration of the event, because even a moderate El Niño can make dangerous weather more likely in regions already under stress from climate change.
The WMO says there is now an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90% that it will continue until at least November.
Most forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate and possibly strong, with unusually warm ocean waters already building beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific.
In late April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific were already approaching El Niño thresholds.
Below the surface, the warning signs are even stronger, with temperatures more than 6°C above average in places, creating a deep reservoir of heat that can feed the surface and strengthen the event.
That is why forecasters are watching the coming months so closely.
El Niño does not create the same impacts everywhere but it tends to tilt the odds towards more extreme conditions.
It can bring heavier rainfall and flooding to parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
At the same time, it is often linked to drier conditions across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
This year, the risks are already being flagged in several vulnerable regions.
The WMO says South Asia is expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall, raising concerns for agriculture, water supplies and food prices in a region where millions depend on the seasonal rains.
The northern Greater Horn of Africa also faces a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the critical June to September rainy season, while Central America is expected to see warmer and drier conditions.
Those warnings matter because El Niño can turn existing pressure into crisis. Where rainfall fails, drought can deepen, crops can struggle, reservoirs can fall and food prices can rise.
Where rainfall intensifies, communities can face floods, landslides, damaged infrastructure and outbreaks of water-related disease.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update also points to above-normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the world for June, July and August.
That raises the risk of heat stress for people, livestock, crops and energy systems, particularly in cities where high temperatures can build through the day and fail to ease at night.
A strong El Niño can also add heat to oceans, increasing the risk of marine heatwaves which damage coral reefs, fisheries and coastal ecosystems.
The WMO says the 2023-24 El Niño was one of the five strongest on record and played a role in the record global temperatures seen in 2024.
That is the wider danger this time.
El Niño is a natural cycle but it is now operating in a world already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions.
The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change is making El Niño events more frequent or intense but it can amplify the impacts because warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere hold more energy and moisture.
That means heatwaves can become more severe and heavy rainfall can become more intense when conditions line up.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.”
He added: “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments and humanitarian agencies need to prepare now.
She said: “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.”
The WMO says early warning systems and seasonal forecasts are now essential to protect lives, livelihoods and economies.
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