The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has urged ministers to challenge climate advisers’ assumptions on electric vehicle (EV) uptake, warning demand remains below target levels.
Responding to the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) latest progress report to Parliament, SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said the UK’s pathway to decarbonisation could not be built on “blind optimism” and argued that current market conditions did not support the committee’s projections for EV uptake.
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SMMT challenges EV assumptions
The CCC had urged Government not to weaken EV sales targets any further following its recent review of the ZEV mandate, warning that additional concessions for manufacturers would undermine emissions reduction efforts, investor confidence and the rollout of public charging infrastructure.
However, Hawes said the committee’s assumption that 95% of the new car and van market would be electric by 2030 did not reflect market realities.
He said: “The pathway cannot be built on blind optimism.
“Reducing surface transport emissions is essential but energy prices remain too high, production costs uncompetitive, charging infrastructure at best uneven, and natural demand too low.
“Yet the Committee on Climate Change doubles down by telling Government to ‘stand firm’ on the ZEV mandate, with the heroic assumption that 95% of the new car and van market will be EV by 2030.
“The mandate compels supply, but it cannot compel demand. Despite the massive increase in EV sales, brought about by manufacturer investment, discounting and government incentives, take up is still below both expectations and targets.”
Hawes said Government could not ignore the impact current market support measures were having on manufacturing, employment and future investment decisions.
He added: “Government should challenge these CCC assumptions and rebalance the pathway to this shared goal, while doubling down on enablers such as VAT reductions on charging and broader fiscal incentives to strengthen delivery.”
Climate advisers back current mandate
The CCC’s report argued it was “essential” that the ZEV mandate is not watered down further.
The committee said weakening the policy would “severely undermine” the UK’s ability to cut greenhouse gas emissions, increase dependence on imported oil and leave households exposed to higher petrol and diesel costs.
It also argued that maintaining the mandate was important for supporting EV adoption and preserving investor confidence in charging infrastructure projects.
Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, backed the committee’s position.
She said: “The Government’s own climate advisers are unequivocal: there must be no further weakening of the mandate.
“Doing so would not only threaten the country’s climate goals but leave more households worse off paying high petrol and diesel prices.
“The CCC is also right to state that another U-turn would undermine the confidence of investors funding charging infrastructure rollout.”
UK ‘not electrifying fast enough’
The committee’s wider recommendations include making electricity cheaper, expanding affordable public charging infrastructure, accelerating heat pump adoption and speeding up grid connections for businesses.
In its annual assessment of progress towards emissions targets, the CCC warned that the UK was not electrifying key parts of the economy quickly enough and said households remained exposed to fossil fuel price shocks.
Nigel Topping, chair of the Climate Change Committee, said: “The transition to clean electricity is not happening fast enough. Government support to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps is critical, not only to keep our climate targets within reach but to unlock savings.”
He warned that any weakening of current policies risked slowing the transition, undermining investment and reducing the certainty businesses need to invest.