More desert dust from North Africa is settling across southern and western Europe, threatening solar generation as well as public health, new research has found.
The study, led by the Paul Scherrer Institute with support from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, found the highest concentrations from Greece and Italy through to Spain and Portugal.
Elevated levels were also recorded across western France as Saharan air travelled over the Atlantic before turning north.
Average desert dust concentrations reached 5.3 micrograms per cubic metre in southern Europe, more than double the 2.1 micrograms measured across central and northern regions. Researchers found concentrations increased by around half a microgram per cubic metre during the past decade, equivalent to a rise of between 10% and 25%.
The growing dust load could become a serious issue for Europe’s expanding solar fleet.
Airborne particles block sunlight before it reaches panels while dust accumulating on their surfaces can cut generation further. Severe events could therefore create unexpected drops in output across several countries at the same time.
Better warning systems would allow solar operators to forecast losses, adjust maintenance and panel-cleaning schedules and prepare other sources of generation to support the grid.
The research suggests the increase is being driven by the continued drying of the Sahara and changes in atmospheric circulation.
The number of storms carrying dust into Europe has not risen but the events have become more intense, transporting larger quantities of material across the continent.
Scientists warned human-driven climate change could worsen the trend by expanding dry regions and creating conditions that lift and carry more dust.
To track the change, more than 50 researchers combined 10 years of measurements from over 100 monitoring stations with physical models and artificial intelligence. Traditional forecasting systems can identify major desert dust events but often miss smaller episodes and struggle to estimate pollution levels close to the ground.
Adding AI helped researchers produce a more detailed map showing where dust is likely to accumulate and how much people may be exposed to.
Ice cores from Colle Gnifetti on the Swiss-Italian border suggest the problem is not limited to the past decade. Dust trapped in the Alpine glacier shows concentrations have more than doubled over the past 150 years.
Unlike pollution from transport, homes and industry, desert dust cannot be cut directly through regulation, leaving Europe increasingly reliant on climate action, better forecasting and adaptation.
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