Energy bills will rise by 13% from July as the conflict in the Middle East pushes up wholesale gas prices, Ofgem has confirmed.
The regulator said the price cap for the period from 1 July to 30 September 2026 will increase, adding around £18 a month for a typical dual fuel household if the level was sustained for a full year.
Under the existing measure of typical use, the cap would rise from £1,641 to £1,862 a year.
But Ofgem is also updating its typical domestic consumption values from 1 July to reflect the fact households are now using less energy, around 7% less electricity and 17% less gas than at the last review.
On that updated basis, the headline cap from July will be £1,663 a year.
The price cap limits the unit rates and standing charges suppliers can bill customers on default tariffs.
It does not cap the total bill, meaning households that use more energy will still pay more. Ofgem said the increase is being driven by higher wholesale gas prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
But the regulator said prices remain well below the height of the 2022 energy crisis, when government support capped typical bills at £2,500.
The latest rise will not affect customers on fixed deals.
Ofgem said around 40% of accounts, equal to 22 million, are now on fixed tariffs. There is also a clear split between gas and electricity.
Decoupling time?
From July, electricity bills are expected to rise by around 5% while gas bills will rise by 24%, reflecting the growing role of renewables in power generation and reduced reliance on gas-fired electricity.
Tim Jarvis, Chief Executive of Ofgem, said: “Today’s price change reflects continued volatility in global energy markets. This means higher wholesale gas prices, driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, is impacting the price we pay for energy.”
He added: “We understand many will be concerned about rising prices. While energy use typically falls over the summer months, there are still practical steps households can take to manage costs, including exploring fixed tariffs or changing their payment method.”
Jarvis said smart meter customers may also be able to access “half price or cheap electricity at the weekends.”
He said: “While our energy supplies remain secure, the best way to limit this exposure is by investing in our energy network.”
Ofgem said customers could reduce costs by switching tariff, fixing their deal or moving from standard credit to direct debit, which could save around £143 a year.
The regulator urged anyone struggling with bills to contact their supplier early, saying firms must offer support including repayment plans, financial assistance and debt advice.
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