Manual gearbox cars could disappear by the end of the decade as manufacturers question the economics of continued production, says VDG.
Vehicle Data Global (VDG) said the decline of manual transmission cars is accelerating faster than diesel vehicles, with both potentially disappearing from the new car market by 2030.
The data specialist analysed millions of market data points and found that while diesel market share has fallen sharply, manual gearboxes are also seeing a rapid decline driven by both changing model availability and consumer demand.
VDG said manual transmission cars accounted for just 13.7% of the market so far this year, while diesel has suffered a 92% collapse since 2016.
The company believes the costs associated with developing and producing manual gearboxes could soon outweigh demand as manufacturers prioritise electrification and automatic drivetrains.
Decline not solely linked to growth of EV and hybrid
VDG said the decline is not solely linked to the growth of hybrid and electric vehicles.
Even among petrol and diesel models where customers still have a transmission choice, manual share has fallen significantly.
Among ICE car buyers, manual transmission share dropped from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.
Ben Hermer, operations director at VDG, said: “The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don’t add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads of developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market.
“Based on current trend data, between 5% and 10% of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030.
“But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense, while they manage the overall pressures of conversion from ICE and competing with international market entrants in the EV sector.”
VDG said the picture remains different in the light commercial vehicle sector, where diesel powertrains and manual gearboxes continue to dominate.
Manual transmissions accounted for 63% of vans last year, compared with fewer than one in five passenger cars.
The company said the traditional diesel-powered manual “motorway mile-muncher” that once dominated fleet and retail sales is rapidly disappearing from the market.
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