British and European gas markets completed a full round trip this week, rallying to multi-year highs on Washington’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran before surrendering as signs of a diplomatic thaw over the Strait of Hormuz emerged.
On 19th August, TTF front month sat at €63.5/MWh and Brent hit a three-week high of $92/bbl, with last week’s Commitment of Traders data showing investment funds edging their net long position on TTF up to 237TWh — below recent peaks, but still firmly bullish.
On 20th August, September 2026 NBP gas traded just under 158p/th, a four-year high, after US President Donald Trump announced, “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”, warning that any country allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide “any type of lifeline” to Iran would face consequences of its own. Supply-side news gave the rally further support, as Yemen’s Houthis claimed drone attacks on Najran airport and an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia. Iran, meanwhile, blacklisted 45 tankers said to have breached its Hormuz transit rules, threatening fines, detention and cargo confiscation, while granting a limited number of Iraqi tankers permission to transit. Iraq produced around 4 million barrels a day before the war and has been among the countries worst hit by the closure.
On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled sanctions on 60 individuals, entities and vessels, but the list excluded the Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iranian oil sales, and no timetable or target countries were specified. Oman’s foreign minister Badr Albusaidi travelled to Tehran for talks with Abbas Araghchi, and by Tuesday the two sides had announced a proposed framework to resume safe navigation through Hormuz, including a joint temporary shipping lane and a demining project. Trump separately said the US Navy had confirmed all mines had been removed or destroyed from international waters in the Strait, with a “zero tolerance” policy on any new laying.
European storage is currently sitting at 63.28% and still historically low for late August. Equinor chief executive Anders Opedal called the position “worrying, but not necessarily a crisis” at ONS 2026. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also addressed the conference, saying “as long as Europe remains dependent on fossil fuels, we remain vulnerable”.
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