NESO and National Gas have published their winter outlook reports, which forecast that the UK will have sufficient and secure gas and electricity supplies this winter.
Electricity supply
The energy system operator forecasts a 9.5% buffer (5.9 GW surplus) above peak electricity demand, which is comparable to recent winters and higher than during the 2022 energy crisis.
Its winter outlook includes new modelling of the surplus electricity available for every day between 31st October 2026 and 31st March 2027. NESO used 30,000 scenarios for each day of winter, stress-testing different weather conditions, electricity demand, wind output and other generator availability.
Dr Deborah Petterson, Director of Whole Energy System Resilience at NESO, said: “Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in global energy markets, Britain enters this winter with a resilient and well-prepared electricity system.
“Our Winter Outlook shows we have sufficient margins and a diverse mix of generation sources to meet demand, even during periods of colder weather and higher system stress.”
Gas supply
Peak demand is expected to reach 493 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d), while total supply capability is assessed at 592 mcm/d.
Overall gas demand this winter is forecast to remain broadly in line with last year, with the country’s gas demand expected to decline by around 1%.
Domestic gas production from the UK Continental Shelf is forecast to decline by around 5%, continuing its long-term downward trend.
While this winter’s outlook is positive, National Gas says continued progress on Government plans to reform security of supply arrangements will be vital to address enduring challenges in the years ahead.
Ian Radley, Chief Commercial Officer at National Gas, said: “The Government’s Gas System in Transition programme is an important step forward, and recent action to strengthen resilience is welcome, however progress now needs to continue at pace.
“As Britain’s Gas System Operator, we’re committed to working together to support Government, regulators and industry to develop the longer-term measures required to maintain secure, reliable and diverse gas supplies in the years ahead.”
The Winter Outlook follows the publication of a statutory consultation by Ofgem to enable National Gas to facilitate an agreement, at the request of the Government, to maintain the country’s import capacity through continental interconnectors.
The analysis indicates that only a rare and very unlikely combination of events, such as extreme weather coinciding with major supply disruption, would be expected to create material security of supply challenges.
The reports come against a backdrop of continued disruption in global energy markets, with the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine pushing energy prices higher.
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