Electrification could account for around one third of cumulative carbon dioxide reductions between 2026 and 2050.
A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) states that while global goals of renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 remain vital, the energy transition must focus on electrifying end-use sectors.
Renewable electricity, grid enhancement and energy efficiency combine to drive the decline as electric technologies avoid conversion losses of combustion. An example of this is heat pumps and EVs, which have higher efficiency compared to fossil fuel counterparts.
The revised 1.5C global warming scenario sees electricity’s share in global consumption rise from 23% today to 35% in 2035 and over 50% in 2050, with increasing demand met by renewables.
It envisages the share of fossil fuels declining across sector from 80% to 50% in 2035 and 20% or less in 2050.
However electrification requires higher market penetration of electric technologies, with the depth varying between sectors. Buildings lead, from 36% today to 77% by 2050, driven by heat pumps, electric cooking and rising space-cooling demand.
Transport shows the fastest relative growth from 1% today to 47% by 2050. Whereas industry is the hardest case starting at 27% and ending at 42%, held back by process heat use and dominated by fossil fuels.
IRENA say that transitioning from fossil fuels requires clear timelines for a gradual phase out, improving workforce skills and offering financial incentives for businesses.
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