From bananas to grapes, many of our staple foods could cost a lot more soon as El Niño starts to hit food production worldwide.
The weather event’s impacts are most directly felt in Asia, Africa, South America and North America. The UK imports two fifths of the food it consumes from overseas – and a quarter of those imports come from these regions.
Last year 88% of bananas came from South Africa, which, when hit by El Niño, tends to experience extreme heat and rainfall.
Grapes, raspberries, strawberries and many citrus fruits come from African countries which battle through drought as an effect of the global weather event.
Chris Jaccarini, Senior Economist on Food and Climate at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “Extremes around the world have driven up food prices, with a small number of climate change-hit items disproportionately fuelling inflation and deepening a cost-of-living crisis that is hitting the poorest hardest. This is not just the food we import, but also what we grow at home.
“And yet, without action, these could be the good years. Unless we rapidly cut emissions and strengthen resilience, climate change impact will continue to worsen with El Niño turbocharging the trend every few years.”
The squeeze on supply means that the UK’s food prices are also vulnerable, especially for wheat. Even though this country is largely self-sufficient in this area, global market prices will be driven by its that may be taken by the world’s biggest producers such as India, Pakistan, China and Australia.
The World Meteorological Organization has forecast that El Niño is highly likely to persist through to February 2027.
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, the weather event is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaker towards the end of this year.
António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
The strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individua country or region.
It effects vary according to location and season, it can also be modified by other climate drivers including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
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