In a positive outlook from the 2026 Global carbon Budget, global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – yet they warn it is not fast enough for a durable decline.
Total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year – due to land-use changes, such as deforestation, peat fires and agriculture.
The remaining amount of carbon that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is now equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate of decarbonisation.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter’s, who led the study, said: “A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.”
“The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline.”
The report also warns of natural carbon sinks (which absorb CO2) are said to have been weakened significantly by 2023-24 El Niño. Meanwhile, 2026 El Niño is predicted to have the same impact again, weaking them further.
As expected, the world is progressing at different rates towards (and away from) net zero, as mentioned in the report. Most importantly, the USA’s emissions are projected to decrease by 1.3% due to a decrease in coal emissions, India’s emissions are due to increase by 4.4% (which is higher than their average growth) and the largest component of the global decline is oil – possibly due to geopolitical tensions raking up prices.
The same can be said for aviation, which is expected to have a 1% drop in emissions due to the flight reductions in and out of the Middle East.
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