A new artificial intelligence model is offering a more realistic view of how wind and solar power could expand globally, highlighting both progress and challenges in reducing emissions.
Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology have developed a computational “time machine” that analyses historical growth patterns to project future renewable deployment more accurately.
Their findings suggest onshore wind could supply around 25% of global electricity by 2050, with solar contributing about 20%, supporting decarbonisation but falling short of the 1.5°C climate target.
The study addresses a key limitation in traditional models, which often assume smooth growth despite real-world expansion being shaped by policy changes, infrastructure limits and social factors.
“Existing models are very good at identifying what needs to happen to reach climate targets, but they can’t tell us which developments are most likely. That’s the gap we wanted to fill”, says Jessica Jewell, Professor at Chalmers University of Technology.
Using 13,000 simulated scenarios, the model captures how renewable growth often occurs in bursts rather than steady progression, improving the accuracy of long-term projections.
“Most models assume a smooth S-shaped growth curve, but that’s not how it actually looks in the real world. Growth often comes in bursts, and if you ignore that, you can misjudge how fast technologies will expand,” says Avi Jakhmola, PhD Student at Chalmers University of Technology and first author of the paper published in Nature Energy.
The projections align broadly with a 2°C pathway – but achieving 1.5°C would require significantly faster deployment across all regions.
“The tripling of renewables pledge is not impossible, but it would require everything to go extremely well in all countries”, says Jewell.
The research also warns that delays will increase the pace of change required, narrowing the window for effective action.
“If we start now, the required growth rates are demanding but not unprecedented, comparable to what the EU targets for wind with REPowerEU and what India has planned for solar power,” says Jakhmola.
“But if we delay until 2030, the acceleration needed becomes much steeper and much more abrupt. The window for ramping up closes quickly.”
Researchers say improved forecasting can support better policy decisions and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon energy system.
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