Community-owned renewable energy capacity across National Grid Electricity Distribution’s regions could reach 1.5GW by 2035 under an ambitious growth scenario, new research suggests.
The Community Energy Scenarios report models three potential pathways across South and Mid Wales and the South West and Midlands of England.
The report suggests shared ownership could deliver up to 64% of new community-owned capacity by 2035. A mandatory 5% offer is modelled under Accelerated Uptake, while Transformational Change assumes a 20% requirement alongside capacity-building support.
Community-owned generation currently stands at 265MW, with 60MW in development. Under a Steady Growth scenario, capacity could reach 527MW by 2035, rising to 795MW with stronger policy support and potentially 1.5GW under Transformational Change.
The modelling covers community-owned rooftop and ground-mounted solar, onshore wind and hydropower. It identifies grid capacity as a major near-term constraint, alongside access to finance, skills, land and reliable revenue support.
David Witherspoon, Community Energy Manager at National Grid Electricity Distribution, said: “This research gives us a better understanding of how community energy could grow in the years ahead and the factors that could help unlock that growth.
“By understanding where opportunities exist and the support communities may need, we can continue helping local groups bring projects forward.”
Around 170 community energy organisations currently operate across the network’s areas, employing 304 people and investing more than £1.2 million into local communities in 2024.
The study calls for clearer definitions, connections reform, dedicated revenue support and greater capacity building to help communities participate in the energy transition.
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