Diesel prices could rise sharply in the UK as a global refining crunch puts further pressure on supplies – global refinery throughput in July remained almost 5 million barrels a day below the same month last year, says the IEA.
UK diesel is already around 190p a litre despite crude oil prices stabilising – FairFuelUK say that refineries can’t produce enough due to a multitude of issues.
The worst of these are that Russian refining capacity is down by around 30% due to strikes, while diesel exports have also been curtailed and Persian Gulf refinery throughput has fallen by around 30% due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Overseas in the UK, diesel reserve cover stands at just 23–26 days, alongside an already limited supply of diesel, having been short for a long time previously.
European diesel refining margins have also surged, with the premium over crude rising above $100 a barrel. FairFuelUK have warned that UK diesel could reach 195–205p a litre if the refining crunch worsens.
FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox said: “Diesel is the commercial heartbeat of any economy. Brent hitting $100 is bad enough but the real danger now is the diesel refining crunch. Diesel prices aren’t rising because oil is expensive – they’re rising because the world can’t refine enough of it.
“That’s a structural crisis and it means UK pump prices are about to surge sharply. We’re already near 190p a litre, and without urgent action, diesel could smash through £2 a litre, hammering motorists, hauliers, small businesses and the entire economy. More than 40 countries have stepped in to protect drivers and keep inflation down. The UK must do the same – or we’ll sleepwalk into another cost‑of‑living shock.”
The organisation is calling for a Fuel Duty freeze and targeted diesel duty reduction alongside the immediate implementation of PumpWatch and a freight resilience plan.
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