With the new BIK rules in force for just over a year now, Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor, Cap HPI, discusses the effect they have had on sales of new 4×4 double cab pick-up sales and how they have affected the used market.
Up until 5 April 2025, HMRC regarded double cab pickups with a payload of at least 1 tonne as commercial vehicles (vans) for BIK (benefit in kind) purposes. With up to five seats and car-like, high specification interiors they were a legitimate way of qualifying for the considerably lower van BIK tax rate.
This sector has seen steady growth over the years with product offerings from many of the major manufactuers. More recently we have seen the introduction of BEV models from MAXUS, Isuzu D-Max EV, Toyota Hilux BEV and PHEV versions of Ford Ranger.
This chart shows the total number of 4×4 double cab pick ups registered each year from 2022 to 2025, and the year to date (YTD) volume for 2026. It also shows the YTD volume for March of each year.
It clearly shows there was a significant surge in orders (11,773 units) ahead of the 5 April 2025 deadline. However, since then, demand from a large segment of the customer base has all but disappeared, reflecting the extent to which purchasing decisions were brought forward in anticipation of the rule change. As a result, the market is now adjusting to a lower level of demand.
At the halfway point of 2026, with 7,057 new registrations YTD, the impact of the BIK rule change for double-cab pick-ups is becoming increasingly apparent. Based on historical registration data, total registrations for 2026 are likely to finish around 50% below previous levels.
Impact of BIK tax changes
The lifestyle 4×4 double cab pick up sector which was previously driven by company car users, company directors, and SME owner drivers has undergone a dramatic decline since the BIK tax changes.
While some users may have chosen to accept the higher taxation and continue to operate these vehicles, it’s apparent that many have sought more tax efficient alternatives. Some, faced with the reality that they can’t avoid the higher tax rate, may have opted to buy high spec SUVs or cars which often have the same or lower BIK tax burdens, as in the case of BEV and PHEV models.
Some manufacturers have identified an opportunity to reposition combi vans as practical, tax-efficient alternatives. By revising model specifications and positioning, these vehicles are increasingly being targeted at former pick-up customers.
Used market implications
The impact on the used market varies depending on when vehicles were first registered. Vehicles registered prior to the rule changes continue to be taxed as vans, however, a short-term oversupply, fuelled by a surge in registrations ahead of the tax change may place temporary downward pressure on used values.
The outlook for post tax change vehicles is more complex. The market can broadly be divided into two segments, buyers influenced by BIK taxation and buyers unaffected by BIK – generally these are private lifestyle customers.
Demand from those buyers who are influenced by the rule change is expected to decline significantly under the new rules, while demand from private buyers is likely to remain stable.
In the longer term, with fewer new vehicles entering the market due to reduced fleet and business demand, the supply of used 4×4 double cab pick-ups in the used market will decrease over time. Providing demand from private lifestyle buyers continues, the constrained supply is likely to drive used market prices upward.
Author: Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor, Cap HPI
Ensure you always receive AM insights. Make us a preferred source of news on Google