Countries do not need to wait for a global plastics treaty to start cutting plastic pollution, according to new research from the Environmental Investigation Agency.
The London-based campaign group said negotiations for a Global Plastics Treaty are now stuck in limbo, with progress stalled despite a majority of countries supporting stronger action.
EIA said a small group of petrostates and countries with vested interests in expanding plastic production has been able to block progress under the current consensus-based process.
Christina Dixon, Ocean Campaign Leader at EIA, said: “Bluntly, it’s outrageous that a relative handful of countries with a vested interest in seeing plastics production increase have been able to derail the entire process.”
She added: “However, our research clearly shows that the planet does not need to die on the hill of consensus.”
The new report, Bending the Curve, includes modelling by Eunomia Research & Consulting looking at what would happen if coalitions of ambitious countries acted together, even without universal global agreement.
It warns global plastic output could reach around 766 million tonnes by 2040 if current trends continue.That would be equivalent to producing more than 75 trillion standard plastic bottles every year.
The modelling shows that a coalition of high-ambition countries acting alone could cut global plastic production by 16% to 18% below business-as-usual levels.
If China joined that coalition, global production could fall by up to 38%, delivering much deeper reductions in waste and emissions.
If high-ambition countries, China and major emerging economies such as Brazil, India and South Africa worked together, global production could fall by around 45% to about 420 million tonnes by 2040.
Under that scenario, mismanaged plastic waste would fall by more than 50% and cumulative emissions would drop by more than 10GtCO2e.
Tanzir Chowdhury, Managing Consultant Economist at Eunomia, said: “Our modelling shows a critical mass of ambitious countries can trigger a system-level shift away from ever increasing plastic production, delivering deep cuts in pollution and emissions.”
He added: “Waiting for global consensus risks locking in further harm.”
EIA said the findings show negotiators should not allow treaty deadlock to become an excuse for inaction.
The report argues progressive coalitions could still bend the pollution curve and build momentum while wider talks remain blocked.
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