Rising volumes of earlier generation BEV LCV models, that have come to the end of their first life, have significantly increased the availability of sales research data in the used wholesale market, writes Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.
This improved visibility of trade transaction data is enabling more accurate valuation modelling and reducing the uncertainty that has historically characterised the sector.
As a result, guide price movements across most BEV LCV sectors have remained modest, with only marginal downward adjustments recorded in the latest edition of the guide. This marks a clear shift from the sharper fluctuations seen in previous periods and suggests that the market is beginning to establish a more stable pricing baseline for electric vans.
Feedback from across the trade indicates that buyers are increasingly willing to engage with BEV stock, reflecting a gradual rise in confidence as real world performance data becomes more widely understood.
The gap between perceived and actual risk is narrowing, helping to support greater pricing stability.
Emerging pricing stability
During normal market conditions, month on month, we would expect a degree of under-performance against the guide prices across all sectors which is attributable to natural age depreciation.
However, it’s clear that, for the majority of BEV LCV sectors, only marginal downward movements have been made in this edition. The only exceptions are small van and large van which comprised mainly of earlier generation models.
Such models typically offered limited driving ranges and longer recharge times compared with the more advanced models now appearing in our data.
Maintaining close alignment between guide prices and live market activity will remain essential as the sector continues to evolve. With supply levels improving and confidence strengthening in key areas, the outlook for the used BEV LCV market is one of increasing stability, supported by better data and more informed buyers.
Higher mileage vehicles – a shift in price sensitivity
Recent trends in our research data suggests a notable shift in the market sensitivity toward higher mileage vehicles. In response, we have implemented targeted revisions to mileage depreciation rates across a broad range of model sectors.
Price performance of higher mileage vehicles
The adjustments we’ve made improved alignment between guide prices and market outcomes, particularly within higher-mileage bands where discrepancies had previously been more pronounced. Current analysis shows that around 81% of guide prices now fall within acceptable accuracy parameters, demonstrating stronger correlation with live trading.
It is worth noting that, very high-mileage vehicles continue to represent a smaller share of sales and remain more susceptible to condition related variability, making precise valuation more challenging. However, ongoing data refinement is helping to close this gap.
The following charts, based on our latest research data, illustrate both the distribution of used LCV sales across mileage bands from 1,000 to 300,000 miles and the corresponding sales performance within each band.
Because both charts share the same horizontal axis, they can be directly compared to assess guide price accuracy at each mileage point and to understand the proportion of total sales represented within each band.
This comparison provides a clear view of where valuations align most closely with market activity and where data volumes are more limited.
In recognising that achieving 100% accuracy across every sales record is not feasible, the green bars highlight the mileage points where guide accuracy falls within acceptable parameters. The blue bars represent mileage bands with a much smaller share of research data.
A combination of factors including, disruptions to fleet replacement cycles, operators delaying vehicle renewals, contract extensions designed to reduce expenditure, supply chain challenges, and improved vehicle durability, has resulted in LCVs remaining in service for longer periods, driving noticeably higher mileages across the used market. Mileage depreciation rates have become increasingly fluid as a result.
The days of relying on long-term stability in these rates are behind us. However, continuous refinements to our pricing methodologies are helping to minimise volatility, while shifting buyer preferences continue to influence trading conditions across all sectors.
Author: Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.
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