Scientists believe we have been affecting the planet’s climate for more than 140 years!
A major new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals that human influence on Earth’s climate can be traced as far back as the late 1800s—decades earlier than commonly assumed.
Using modern climate models in a historical “what-if” scenario, researchers explored how accurately early temperature measurements could have picked up signs of greenhouse gas warming, if today’s technology had been available then
The team focused on stratospheric temperatures, where the warming of the lower atmosphere caused by rising CO₂ levels creates a distinctive cooling signature above.
This “fingerprint” contrasts sharply with natural climate variability, making it a strong early indicator of human impact.
Their models suggest that by around 1885—a time before gas-powered cars and peak industrial expansion—the signal would already have been strong enough to detect
Even if measurement had been limited to the Northern Hemisphere, the odds of identifying that human-caused cooling are almost as strong.
The analysis indicates detection would still have been possible by 1894.
This implies that awareness of human-driven climate change could have come more than a century ago, had the right observational tools and scientific frameworks been in place.
The significance of the result lies not just in revising the timeline – but in affirming how robust climate science has always been—even when examining early data.
Prior to this study, the field had not formally probed how early anthropogenic warming became mathematically distinguishable from natural variations.
According to the authors, the presence of a detectable human signal over 130 years ago underscores a long-standing, and largely unrecognised, chapter in climate science history
This reframing carries weight for today’s climate discourse.
The researchers argue that it reinforces our understanding of both the magnitude of human impact and the enduring clarity of climate models.
It suggests that if early warning systems had existed—and been taken seriously—society might have understood its role in climate change far earlier.
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