Used LCV market under pressure amid weak demand

New LCV registrations edged up in February but ongoing economic uncertainty, constrained supply and cautious fleet investment continue to shape a used van market where demand is selective and prices remain under pressure, reports Ken Brown, LCV Valuations Editor, Cap HPI

At 14,641 units, February 2026 new LCV registrations increased by 165 vehicles (+1.1%) compared with February 2025.

While this modest increase is welcome, the continuing weakness in new LCV registrations largely reflects ongoing economic uncertainty, which continues to weigh heavily on business confidence. It appears that many fleet operators are deferring investment in new vehicles unless it is absolutely necessary.

The conflict in Iran has already had a direct impact on energy prices, most notably motor vehicle fuel, which will inevitably add further pressure to the cost of living.

At the same time, the Bank of England has warned that up to two base rate increases may be required this year, potentially increasing the cost of vehicle finance, while inflation is expected to rise to 3.5% or higher.

Taken together, these factors present a challenging outlook for the motor industry as a whole, further undermining consumer confidence and increasing operating costs across the sector.

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Cumulative guide price movements 3 years/60k (all sectors)

April used LCV average guide price movement -1.2%

This chart highlights the sharp fluctuations in guide price movements between 2020 and 2025.

Prices peaked 2020 and 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, before declining to more sustainable levels by late 2023. The upturn in prices is clearly evident in 2025 as the market reacted to stock shortages.

Represented by the purple dashed line, the cumulative downward movement so far this year is -2%.

Market price changes

The following charts illustrate the average market price changes as reflected by guide price adjustments.

These changes represent a combination of price revisions and adjustments to the mileage depreciation rates of individual model ranges.

The Minibus and All‑Terrain Workhorse sectors have experienced the most significant downturn in market prices, while only marginal changes were seen across the remaining sectors.

As always, the devil is in the detail, so we recommend using the guide to confirm prices for specific models, as values can vary considerably by model range and at individual CAP ID level.

The following charts are based on our March research data. They represent both the distribution of used LCVs sold across mileage bands from 1,000 up to 300,000 miles, and the sales performance within each of those mileage bands.

By comparing the two charts, which share exactly the same horizontal axis, it’s clear that sales performance closely mirrors the concentration of vehicles within the research data. In this month’s research we noticed a decrease in sales performance for some vehicles that had covered over 90,000 miles resulting in some marginal adjustments to mileage depreciation rates.

Used LCV Wholesale Market – Views from the block

Auction officials we spoke to over the past month reported little change in market conditions. The main issues remain the ongoing shortage of used stock and continuing uncertainty over future supply.

While some suggested the March plate change could prompt a substantial influx of de‑fleeted and part‑exchange vehicles, others expressed their doubts and warned against expecting any significant uplift. Whatever the effects are of the March plate, they are unlikely to be immediate, and it could be well into April before we start to see vehicles appear.

Conversion and guide performances were mixed.

Auction sale footfall and online bidding remains high, and many trade buyers, especially the larger ones, continue to pay a premium to secure the right stock.

Some auction houses reported higher provisional sales that required extra work behind the scenes to convert, indicating a lean towards a seller’s market with vendors holding out for top prices.

Others felt there was a widening two‑tier market where vehicles in reasonable condition for their age and mileage continue to sell well, while those with damage and/or requiring mechanical repairs are increasingly hard to shift.

Battery Electric LCVs (BEVs)

As uptake of new BEV LCVs continues to increase, growing numbers of used examples are now reaching the end of their first operating cycle and entering the used LCV market. From a valuation perspective, this is a positive development, as it provides safer sample sizes within our research data, enabling us to set guide prices that more accurately reflect current used wholesale market conditions.

Earlier-generation BEV LCVs were typically more expensive, offered limited driving ranges, and required longer recharge times compared with the later models now appearing in our data. Ongoing technological advances, coupled with improvements to charging infrastructure, mean that range anxiety and access to recharging facilities are becoming less of a barrier.

That said, the transition away from petrol and diesel internal combustion engines (ICE) has been driven less by consumer demand and more by political determination to enforce the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Under the mandate, manufacturers are required to meet strict sales targets for compliant vehicles or face penalties for every non‑compliant vehicle sold.

This year’s requirement that 24% of a manufacturer’s total sales must be ZEV compliant puts considerable pressure on the LCV sector. In practice, compliance can only be achieved by manufacturers effectively forcing dealers and large fleet customers to include a proportion of compliant vehicles within their order mix, regardless of their suitability or cost and distorting the natural demand patterns.

In contrast, the transition within the used LCV market remains, for now, driven by user choice. Given that the vast majority of LCVs are purchased and operated for commercial purposes, it is difficult for a market segment focused on productivity and profitability to fully embrace BEVs and the broader green initiatives.

Where there remains an ample supply of ICE vehicles in the used market, which offer greater flexibility and convenience, it is understandable why many operators continue to favour traditional powertrains to solve their transport needs.

Over time, we will inevitably see a gradual reduction in the volume of ICE LCVs entering the used market, however, that point still appears some way off.

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