The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has again urged the Government to review the UK’s electric vehicle (EV) transition as new analysis shows key assumptions behind the policy no longer reflect market reality.
It marks the latest warning from the SMMT, which last month also urged the Government to rewrite the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate amid concerns that the EV market remains under pressure and out of step with regulatory targets.
While the SMMT said the sector remains committed to net zero, it believes the widening gap between policy ambition and market demand risks undermining both decarbonisation and economic growth if the strategy is not reassessed.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 23.4% of new car registrations in 2025, below the 28% ZEV mandate requirement and short of the 26% level the Government had originally expected the market to achieve without regulation.
The SMMT said manufacturers have helped close the gap between demand and regulatory targets through heavy discounting estimated at more than £10 billion over the past two years, alongside the use of mandate flexibilities.
However, the SMMT warned that approach is not sustainable as targets become significantly tougher from 2027, rising to 52% for cars and 46% for vans.
Ensure you always get AM insight. Make us a preferred source of news on Google.
Natural demand unlikely to deliver EV share required
According to the organisation, natural market demand is unlikely to deliver the rapid increase in EV share required within two years, while electric van sales would need to grow substantially to meet regulatory thresholds.
The findings are set out in a new report titled “Same Destination, Smarter Route”, published at the SMMT Electrified conference.
The report highlights how several key assumptions underpinning the transition have changed since the strategy was originally developed.
The SMMT said battery costs are currently more than 30% higher than expected, while industrial energy prices in the UK have risen by around 80% since 2021.
These factors mean the expected price parity between electric and combustion engine vehicles has not yet been reached, slowing consumer adoption.
Charging infrastructure has expanded but challenges remain.
Public charging costs have increased by more than 140% in some cases over the past five years, while a target to provide at least six ultra rapid chargers at every motorway service area by the end of 2023 was only around 70% complete by early 2025.
The SMMT said the EV transition is proving particularly difficult in the commercial vehicle sector.
Although almost two-thirds of new van models are now available as zero emission, uptake reached just 9.6% in 2025, well below the 16% mandated share.
Heavy goods vehicle adoption also remains limited, accounting for around 1.4% of the market last year.
Against this backdrop, the SMMT said the UK should reassess its transition pathway to ensure the strategy remains realistic and supports economic growth.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “The UK’s EV transition pathway was conceived with the best of intentions but the assumptions behind it have proved over-ambitious. A landscape which once looked solid has turned out to be quicksand.
“Recognising the world of 2026 is not the one envisaged five years ago is not a retreat from ambition; it is a necessary step to achieving it.
“We need an urgent review that reflects today’s realities, that delivers decarbonisation not deindustrialisation and offers consumers the choice they have always expected.”
In repsonse to the SMMT’s latest report, Vicky Read, chief executive, ChargeUK called the SMMT’s call for those EV sales targets to be amended “unnecessary and unwise”.
She said: “The ZEV Mandate was only reviewed and amended last year and the most recent official figures, show the auto industry is meeting its targets.
“Further messing with the ZEV mandate would have the effect of chilling charging investment, creating a real barrier to EV adoption and putting the transition at risk.”
Read added that the Government is currently reviewing the cost of public EV charging and wants to see “skyrocketing standing charges” tackled, as well as the VAT penalty removed for public charging to help reduce the cost of running an EV.