Renewable energy market trends – Energy Live News

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UK electricity consumption returns to long-term decline

The UK’s total electricity generation reached one of its lowest levels in over 15 years, similar to 2020 and 2022. This decline was driven by improvements in energy efficiency, reduced industrial and commercial output, and higher electricity prices. Compared to 2023, generation fell from 236TWh to 229TWh.

Demand for electricity is set to increase as the UK makes progress in decarbonising the economy. However, the adoption of electrification in key sectors, such as heating and transport, has been slow mainly due to supply chain issues, inflation, higher energy costs and grid infrastructure constraints.

The year also marked the end of coal-fired generation in the UK with the closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire on 30th September 2024. To compensate, solar, biomass, and imports have become key sources of electricity.

Figure 1: National Grid projections for future electricity demand

Source: A big, bright future: how the UK is transforming its electricity grid, National Grid 2025

UK homegrown renewable generation overtakes fossil fuels

Despite a decrease in electricity volumes, 2024 marked the UK’s cleanest year ever, carbon intensity dropping to an average of 125 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) – a significant decrease from the 419 grams of CO2 per kWh recorded in 2014. Renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels for the first time, supplying 51% of the nation’s electricity.

Renewable power generation increased to 115.7TWh, up from 107.9TWh in 2023, and equated to just 30% back in 2018.

This milestone was driven by the expansion of wind and solar, reduced electricity consumption, and increased imports, with green power outpacing gas for the first time.

Figure 2: Renewables share of the UK power mix past 15 years (TWh & %)
Renewables share of the UK power mix past 15 years (TWh & %)
Wind strives once again

In 2024, wind energy contributed 30% of the UK’s electricity generation, producing just over 81TWh, up from 78TWh in 2023, despite unusually low wind speeds.

This increase was driven by a 23% rise in offshore wind generation, with additional capacity expected in 2025 from the completion of Dogger Bank A&B, Neart na Gaoithe, and Moray West wind farms.

The lifting of the onshore-wind ban in July led to a 590MWh increase in onshore capacity, including the Viking Wind Farm on the Shetland Islands. Further onshore wind deployment is anticipated as part of the 2030 clean energy goal.

On 18th December 2024, the maximum wind generation record was broken, with wind providing 22,523MWh and 68.3% of the UK’s electricity that day.

Figure 3: Power generation by fuel type past 15 years (TWh & %)
Power generation by fuel type past 15 years (TWh & %)
Gas

With the closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power station, Ratcliffe-on-Soar in 2024, the focus for future clean power development has shifted to reducing fossil gas consumption.

Gas generation has been declining since 2016, reaching a record low of 26% in 2024, similar to levels seen in 2012 and 2013.

Additionally, record levels of cheap power imports have contributed to one of the lowest levels of gas-fired electricity generation in the past 15 years.

Solar

In 2024, solar power generation remained steady at 12.9TWh, consistent with levels since 2021, accounting for around 5% of the UK’s electricity mix.

Nuclear

Nuclear generation decreased slightly by 0.1% to 38.2TWh, marking a record low due to outages and delayed restarts in the UK nuclear fleet.

Imports

With power prices remaining high and above pre-energy crisis levels, there is a strong incentive to import cheaper electricity from neighbouring countries.

2024 saw a net import of 42TWh for the UK, a 27% increase from the previous year, marking one of the highest levels on record.

The main contributors to the UK’s net imports were France and Norway, providing around 2.2GWh and 1.1GWh, respectively. Currently, the UK is a net importer of electricity, but with continued investment in the clean power system, it is projected to become a net exporter by 2030.

Journey to clean power

New forecasts from Cornwall Insight predict the UK will miss its revised Clean Power 2030 targets by 32GWh. Solar PV is set to fall short by 16GWh, onshore wind by 10GWh, and offshore wind by 6GWh despite policy changes and increased support.

The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan addresses infrastructure and grid connections, but the impact of these reforms may be too slow. Growing energy demand from data centres highlights the need for renewable investment. Uncertainty around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) adds to the challenge.

Despite missing targets, progress in renewable capacity remains significant, keeping the sector on track for net zero emissions ahead of the 2050 goal.

Figure 4: Forecasted 2030 installed capacity vs government target shortfall (GWh)
Forecasted 2030 installed capacity vs government target shortfall (GWh)
Summary

In 2024, the UK’s electricity generation fell to a 15-year low, driven by energy efficiency improvements, reduced industrial output, and higher electricity prices. The year marked the end of coal-fired generation with the closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar, compensated by solar, biomass, and imports.

Despite decreased volumes, 2024 was the cleanest year with carbon intensity averaging 125 CO2/kWh, and renewables supplied 51% of electricity, surpassing fossil fuels.

Wind energy contributed 30%, setting records despite low wind speeds, with further capacity expected in 2025. Solar remained steady at 12.9TWh, while nuclear slightly decreased to 38.2TWh.

High power prices led to a 27% increase in electricity imports, mainly from France and Norway. Gas generation hit a record low at 26%.

Forecasts predict the UK will miss its 2030 clean power targets by 32GWh. Despite challenges, renewable capacity growth remains significant, aiming for net zero emissions ahead of 2050.

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