The new and used retail car market is expected to reach a six year peak of 9.75 million units this year, according to Auto Trader.
The company’s H1 analysis has looked at the strong first half of the year, which saw consumer car buying demand remain robust despite political and economic turbulence.
The new car market started the year confidently, but private registrations softened in Q2.
And while levels of new car interest continues to rise on Auto Trader (up 16% in June alone), and the Government’s newly announced Electric Car Grant (ECG) looks set to stimulate demand in more affordable new electric vehicles (the share of new electric enquiries on Auto Trader jumped from 15% to 25% in the first 24 hours after it was announced), it remains cautiously optimistic for the new car market in the months ahead. It anticipates registrations will be flat in 2025, remaining at around 1.96 million.
More brands, more models and more opportunity
The retail market has entered a new era in brands, models and fuel-types, which Auto Trader believes offers retailers a unique opportunity to expand their traditional stock profiles, and experiment with unfamiliar vehicles.
Auto Trader’s data shows that the combination of makes and models available to sell in 2025 has increased circa 10% on last year, fuelled in part by the growing number of new entrants entering the parc and the rapid increase in used electric and hybrid cars.
Used car market enters H2 with momentum
The used car market has been far more robust and enters H2 with real momentum behind it.
Strong levels of consumer demand have helped cars to sell at near record speeds, stabilise prices (flat for the last three consecutive months) and most importantly, increase sales, which rose circa 2% year-on-year in H1.
However, due to significant nuances in supply and demand dynamics, a growing division in sales performance between retailers has emerged this year.
While sales volumes for franchise businesses have been broadly flat over the period, on average, independent retailers have recorded a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase.
Auto Trader said this is largely due to ongoing supply and sourcing challenges which have impacted franchise retailers more acutely as the full impact of the 2.4 million new cars not built during the pandemic flows through the parc.
The 3-5-year-old segment of the market, which is a key stock profile of franchise businesses, has continued to shrink: in 2019, there were 4.8m cars in this age group, but by the end of this year, it’s expected to drop to just 2.9m, the lowest level on record.
‘Golden era’ of economy stock set to fuel growth opportunity
Although the COVID shortfall will continue to impact the parc over the coming years, independent retailers have so far been largely shielded.
Auto Trader data shows a rise in consumer demand for older and more affordable stock, with interest for cars aged 5-10-years old (YO) increasing 5.2% in H1.
This age cohort has proven to be a sweet spot in the market and has consistently been the fastest selling for the last 12 months, with the average 5-10 year-old car selling two days faster than the rest of the market.
According to Auto Trader’s data, ‘economy stock’ is set to enter a golden era, with 10.1m cars aged 5-10 years predicted to be in the parc by the end of 2025, while the number of 10-15-year-old vehicles is set to hit 8.5m.
It will mark the highest number on record but will continue growing in the coming years.
And the consumer demand for these more affordable vehicles is high, so there’s a big opportunity for retailers to leverage this and continue the strong performance from the first half of the year.
Marc Palmer, Auto Trader’s head of strategy & insights, said: “Although retailers are navigating a range of experiences shaped by supply, demand and stock mix, the overall UK automotive retail market remains resilient and full of opportunity.
“Robust consumer confidence and record levels of engagement on Auto Trader point to the underlying health, even as stock challenges create divergence between independents and franchises.
“Retailers able to adapt and diversify their offer can benefit from the evolving landscape, but leveraging accurate data and the right digital tools will be critical to understand the fast changing market and to in turn support consumers to navigate their buying journey.”