The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forecast that global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will double in 2025, reaching 2 million tonnes.
Despite the increase, this will still represent just 0.7% of total fuel consumption by airlines, underlining the scale of the challenge facing the aviation industry’s climate goals.
The announcement was made during IATA’s annual meeting in New Delhi, India, amid rising concerns that SAF production remains far below the levels needed to meet the sector’s 2050 net-zero emissions target.
SAF, made from waste oils and biomass, is seen as the most viable pathway to decarbonising aviation in the medium term.
While the growth in output is welcome, IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that it comes at a high cost.
“The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate,” he said. The additional SAF volumes are expected to increase the global aviation fuel bill by $4.4 billion in 2025.
Since 2021, the aviation sector has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century, largely relying on SAF as a core solution.
However, energy companies have been slow to scale up supply and airlines are facing competition for limited volumes.
At the same time, carriers are also contending with delays from aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing in delivering newer, more fuel-efficient planes.
Industry leaders continue to urge governments and energy producers to provide stronger policy support, subsidies and infrastructure investment to stimulate SAF production and help lower its costs. Without a dramatic acceleration in supply, many experts warn that the industry risks falling short of its long-term climate commitments.
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