Global coal demand is expected to plateau before gradually declining by 2030 as competition from renewables, natural gas and nuclear intensifies, according to the IEA’s 2025 Coal Market Report.
The report finds coal consumption will rise 0.5% in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes. Patterns varied across key markets. In India, an early monsoon reduced coal use for only the third time in five decades.
In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policies slowing coal plant retirements lifted consumption, while the EU saw a modest decline. China’s coal use remained broadly unchanged from 2024.
By 2030, global coal demand is expected to return to 2023 levels. The forecast is driven largely by the power sector, which accounts for two-thirds of consumption.
Coal-fired generation is expected to decline from 2026 onward as renewable capacity grows, nuclear expands, and liquefied natural gas enters the market.
Industrial coal use is projected to remain resilient.
China, responsible for over half of global coal consumption, is expected to see a slight decline as it aims to peak domestic coal use by 2030.
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, said: “Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030.”
India is forecast to see the largest absolute increase, rising over 3% per year to 2030, while Southeast Asia will experience the fastest growth at over 4% annually.
Coal trade is set to fall as China reduces imports and oversupply persists.
Most major producer countries, including China and Indonesia, are expected to see output decline, with India as the notable exception.
Global coal demand to plateau then drop by 2030 appeared first on Energy Live News.