Germany is predicted to miss its net zero target of 2045.
Analysis by DNV, shows Germany is making massive strides towards energy independence, cutting its reliance on foreign energy imports from 70% today to just 27% by 2050.
Coal and oil imports will plummet by 99% and 79% respectively, marking a dramatic shift in the country’s energy mix. But despite this progress, Germany is still set to miss its 2045 climate neutrality target.
The report predicts by 2050, Germany will have reduced CO2 emissions by 95% compared to 1990 levels—just shy of its goal.
Electrification is playing a huge role, with 46% of energy demand expected to be met by electricity, more than doubling today’s 19%.
The rapid rollout of renewables means electricity production will also double to 1,000 TWh by 2050, with 90% coming from renewable sources.
“Germany has long been a front runner in the energy transition and has established a national target to achieve a net zero energy economy by 2045,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “Our investigation finds that Germany will miss this target — but by a narrow margin. We forecast that emissions will fall by 95% by 2050.”
Hydrogen will be key in this transformation, accounting for a third of Germany’s energy supply by 2050, with half produced domestically.
Meanwhile, energy efficiency improvements will cut per capita energy use by over 50%. DNV projects that Germany will invest €3.3 trillion in energy infrastructure over the next 25 years, focusing on renewables, hydrogen, storage and transmission.
For German industry, this transformation will bring both challenges and opportunities. While energy prices will not threaten industrial competitiveness, energy-intensive sectors must prioritise efficiency, electrification and carbon capture. The shift to renewables will also lead to falling electricity and gas prices in the short term.
“As the largest economy in Europe Germany’s role in the European energy transition is pivotal,” said Prajeev Rasiah, Regional Director at DNV. “Germany is transforming its energy landscape by increasing renewable energy sources and phasing out nuclear and coal power. These combined efforts in electrification and efficiency will drive decarbonisation.”
Germany’s transition is one of the most ambitious in the world but to hit its net-zero goal, policymakers will need to bridge the final emissions gap.
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