Franchised dealers report stronger business and consumer confidence than independents at the start of Q1, according to the latest Dealer Barometer from JudgeService.
When asked to rate business confidence compared with the final quarter of 2025, 36% of franchised dealers said it was higher, 43% said it was unchanged and 20% said it was lower.
Independent dealers were more cautious. Some 43% said their business confidence was lower, while 28% said it was higher and 28% said it was unchanged.
A similar split was reported on consumer confidence. Among franchised dealers, 43% said consumer confidence was about the same as last quarter, 38% said it was higher and 19% said it was lower.
Independent dealers reported weaker sentiment, with 43% saying consumer confidence was lower, 28% unchanged and 28% higher.
Commenting on the findings, Neil Addley, managing director of JudgeService, said: “Research for our JudgeService Dealer Barometer was conducted in January to provide some insight on confidence levels as the market got back to normal trading following the start of the New Year.
“Despite concerns about EV targets, the results show most franchised dealers are optimistic about their Q1 OEM new car programmes aimed at building engagement, orders and sales up to and after the March plate-change.
“The views of independent dealers are more nuanced, reflecting seasonal caution as these retailers test the waters with the stock they started the year with.”
Majority want ZEV targets scrapped
Dealers were also asked whether the government should phase out ZEV mandate targets on new car sales.
Among franchised dealers, 80% said the targets should be abandoned, 8% supported them continuing and 12% were undecided.
Independent dealers were more divided, with 43% undecided, 33% saying the targets should be removed and 24% in favour of them continuing.
Addley added: “With the changes in EU policy and the clock ticking down on the future sales of new petrol and diesel engined cars, franchised dealers are understandably more vocal in their opposition to the ZEV Mandate’s current reduction targets.
“However, independents see a future where used petrol and diesel cars are still going to be in high demand.
“For these dealers the phasing out and banning of new ICE sales is something they believe may not impact them for some years.”