Markets appear to be in a wait and see pattern. Prices across the week are marginally higher with front month TTF and NBP up approximately 1% at the time of writing. There has not been a huge amount of change on the fundamental side, with stable flows from Norway albeit with the odd extension or unplanned outage not lasting long, muted demand and higher solar output. Looking ahead, market attention is shifting to the 21st of May, when scheduled outages at Troll and Kollsnes are expected to reduce flows. Elsewhere the increase in European gas prices have also put prices ahead of Asian spot LNG prices, reducing the immediate concern of cargo diversions.
Yesterday the EU’s energy commissioner said that the bloc does not intend to revive its imports of Russian energy even if there is peace deal between Ukraine and Russia which added some upward pressure to gas prices further along the curve. However, all eyes are on potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks on Thursday which could be attended by U.S. President Donald Trump. While geopolitical developments remain in the background, the market outlook remains steady for now, supported by balanced fundamentals and limited immediate disruption risks.
In other news, next week we will see the EU-UK summit in London where the potential for a UK-EU ETS link up is already on the agenda. There has been widespread backing from the industry, oil majors including BP and Equinor as well as members of the European Parliament. UKA prices have rallied in recent week on the prospect of a link-up despite the fact it could take years in negotiations. Increase in UKA’s support UK electricity prices due to the make-up of prices.
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