After some volatility seen earlier in the week the market has stabilised ignoring a mix of geopolitical risks. TTF and NBP contracts moved up earlier in the week, following the Israeli strike in Doha whilst market reaction was muted when Poland shot down Russian drones over its airspace this week — the first direct NATO-Russia contact since the war began. In other news the EU is considering accelerating its phase-out of Russian oil and gas, under pressure from the US to act faster. Russian gas now makes up just 13% of EU imports, down from 45% before 2022 and the EU has agreed more flexible storage rules, giving member states additional time and leeway to hit the 90% fill target.
Despite the above, European storage sits near 80% full, keeping the system comfortable for now. Norwegian flows remain constrained by maintenance, while LNG arrivals into the UK are limited. The prompt is looking tighter, with wind speeds dropping and CCGT demand picking up as a result. As we approach October, winter weather risk is set to dominate. If conditions turn colder, sentiment could shift fast, with gas once again the driver of power prices across the continent.
For now, markets are looking calm, finely balanced however any further supply constraints, geopolitical risk, weather uncertainty and the potential for ongoing sanctions will provide direction as we head into winter.
Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 11th September 2025 appeared first on Energy Live News.