Households could see energy bills drop by £129 this summer, as the Default Tariff Cap is forecast to fall to £1,720 from July, according to the final prediction from Cornwall Insight.
The price cap – which limits what suppliers can charge a typical dual fuel household – is currently set at £1,849.
A 7% fall from that level would offer some relief to consumers ahead of the autumn and winter.
The updated forecast comes as the official observation window closed on 16 May, locking in wholesale energy prices and other cost factors that inform Ofgem’s final decision due later this month.
Cornwall Insight said the slight increase in its earlier predictions was down to rising wholesale market prices and tweaks to other costs including networks and green levies.
A temporary £28 uplift for debt-related costs is also assumed to remain in place until at least the end of September, pending Ofgem’s final decision on how long it will continue.
Looking further ahead, the energy consultancy expects further small drops in the cap in October and again in January 2026, although this outlook remains highly volatile.
Cornwall Insight warned that global factors could quickly shift the landscape. These include shifting weather patterns, EU changes to gas storage rules, US tariff policies – and the ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine.
Ofgem will confirm the official July price cap level on 24 May.
While the drop is welcome, prices remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels and vulnerable households are still facing tough choices as summer approaches.
The next price cap update will apply from 1 July to 30 September, before a new level kicks in for winter.
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