Energy bills are expected to fall this summer, according to the latest forecast from Cornwall Insight, with a typical dual fuel household likely to pay nearly £170 less a year from July.
The energy consultancy predicts that the Ofgem price cap will drop to £1,683, down from the current April level of £1,849.
That’s an 8.9% fall, saving the average household £166 a year on a standard variable tariff.
While the July cap won’t be finalised until the end of May, Cornwall Insight’s analysts say recent declines in wholesale energy prices are behind the projected cut.
The forecast also shows a slight further fall in October, with another small dip expected in January 2026.
The recent drop in energy market prices is being driven by a mix of geopolitical and market forces.
These include the US decision to introduce tariffs on certain imports – which has had broader knock-on effects – and above-average spring temperatures that have eased demand and reduced short-term pressure on gas prices.
But analysts are warning customers not to get too comfortable. “While falling prices may appear to be good news, they are also a sign of how volatile the market remains,” the firm said.
Cornwall Insight pointed to several key global developments that could quickly reverse the current downward trend.
US tariffs, for instance, might deter LNG exports to international markets, lowering domestic prices – but there’s no guarantee that this cheaper gas would reach the UK.
Meanwhile, EU discussions around easing gas storage obligations for next winter could reduce demand for gas injections and put further downward pressure on prices.
But any potential easing could be swiftly offset by renewed geopolitical shocks, particularly given the ongoing war in Ukraine and general economic uncertainty.
With a month still to go before the cap is finalised, customers are being urged to watch developments closely.
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