The Cypriot grid under strain
The Cypriot electricity system was operating at the limits of its stability. Due to the cold weather, the demand for electricity had increased and needed to be met by the generation resources. However, balancing these fluctuations is difficult in the case of the Cypriot transmission system because it operates without at least a minimum reserve margin over the long term. The situation was further complicated by planned outages of some generation sources. The lack of back-up capacity and the inability to rely on renewables or to exchange electricity with other regions exacerbate the situation. In times of crisis and rising demand, there is then the unpleasant choice between emergency controlled disconnection and trying to meet demand at any cost. However, this could mean irreversible damage to the generation resources that are operating at or even above their capacity. Such a mode of operation is only possible under favourable weather conditions, but certainly not in the long term.
Limited reserves, rising risks
Maintaining the balance between generation and consumption without the need for controlled disconnections was achieved partly because two smaller generation units were successfully synchronized with the grid at the last moment, covering the looming gap between demand and production. The Cypriot government, of course, put pressure on the operator to prevent customer disconnections. However, as mentioned above, such efforts lead to the deployment of overloaded units and an increased risk of long-term failures. The system was thus operating at the edge of its capabilities, and any unexpected outage could have caused serious problems. The entire grid was running without the necessary reserves and relied on the extraordinary efforts of technicians as well as sheer luck, which increased the risk of long-term damage.
It was a very pressing issue that fortunately subsided with rising temperatures and the end of planned outages of generation sources. However, similar difficulties can be expected in the summer months, especially in the evening – while during the day the increased demand can be met by photovoltaic panels, in the evening the energy consumption of air conditioning will have to be met by conventional sources. In general, seasonal fluctuations in demand are exacerbated by extreme weather events such as heat waves, severe storms or frost. These can cause sudden changes in energy consumption but also damage the infrastructure itself. In winter, for example, frost can freeze mechanical parts of power plants and transformers or damage overhead lines due to ice and heavy snow.
Seasonal threats to energy supply
Power outages have a significant social and economic impact. Households losing light or food spoiling in their fridges can be considered an inconvenient but minor situation. On a larger scale, however, outages can threaten hospitals, airports or public transport systems and cripple the overall functioning of the state. This situation shows the vulnerability of Cyprus’ energy infrastructure. Although renewables are playing an increasing role, dependence on conventional generation remains crucial. Without better grid stability and more efficient energy management, seasonal fluctuations in demand will continue to pose a risk.
The importance of scenario planning
In situations where the stability of the power grid is dependent on many factors with a high degree of uncertainty, detailed planning of the operation of the power system – from long-term time horizons to a few minutes ahead of real time – becomes increasingly important. Advanced analysis of scenarios that may occur is also key. While these processes will not ensure the missing generation capacity, they will allow the TSO to prepare for different situations in advance and then act appropriately, without having to take risky actions with uncertain outcomes.
How Griffin NMS strengthens power grids
Such planning requires a sufficiently robust and flexible software solution to allow accurate modelling and simulation of different scenarios. One such solution is the Griffin NMS (Network Management System), an advanced power grid management platform that enables operational planning, support for coordination processes and the creation of Grid Twin – a digital model of the real power grid. Griffin is designed with an emphasis on flexibility and customization to meet the specific needs of grid operators.
Among its key functions is complex modelling, which enables the creation of detailed models of the electricity network at different levels (national, regional and pan-European) and helps to forecast and optimise generation to meet forecast demand. Unexpected outage analysis is another integral part of Griffin’s functionality – ensuring the grid is resilient to outages and reinforcing its stability during peak load periods. Effective planning then enables better coordination of outages and ensures reliable power supply even in crises. Griffin also reflects the growing involvement of renewables by allowing a large number of variations in weather conditions to be simulated.
Another key function of Griffin is the identification of transmission bottlenecks. This is very important in cases where, although there is a generation source or a neighbouring region capable of supplying the required energy, the transmission would lead to congestion on the line between the point of generation and the point of consumption. Griffin also allows different crisis scenarios to be simulated, helping grid operators prepare for worst-case situations. Thanks to Griffin NMS, TSOs can better anticipate demand fluctuations, integrate renewables and contribute to the Green Deal objectives in line with EU legislation. As renewables become more prevalent, tools like this are becoming essential to maintain reliable electricity supply and long-term stability of the power system.
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