Diversification is widely seen as the key to energy security—but the supply of critical minerals is trending in the opposite direction.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global supply chains for essential energy-transition minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt and rare earths are becoming more concentrated and vulnerable to disruption.
The 2025 edition of the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook finds that while markets appear stable and prices are down from their 2021–2022 peaks, warning signs are growing.
Export restrictions are on the rise and a handful of countries dominate mineral refining and processing.
In 2024, the average market share of the top three refining nations climbed to 86%, up from 82% in 2020. For most minerals, China remains the top supplier, while Indonesia dominates nickel growth.
Of particular concern is copper. Demand is set to surge due to global grid expansion, yet current project pipelines suggest a potential 30% shortfall by 2035.
Lithium is also flagged as a risk, given increasing supply bottlenecks.
The report includes expanded analysis of minerals used not only in energy but also in advanced tech and aerospace. It is supported by the IEA’s updated Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an interactive tool to explore trends and projections.
Since 2021, the IEA has ramped up its focus on mineral security, launching a dedicated Critical Minerals Security Programme and conducting emergency preparedness exercises.
As clean energy technologies scale up, ensuring resilient and diversified mineral supply chains is becoming critical.
The IEA’s latest analysis urges stronger international cooperation and investment to avoid new vulnerabilities in the global energy transition.
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