Automotive

Used LCV confidence points to faster dealer stock turn

Staff
By Staff
14 Min Read
Used LCV confidence points to faster dealer stock turn

Used light commercial vehicle values remained relatively stable during the traditional summer slowdown as growing confidence among dealers and auction buyers helped less desirable stock find buyers, writes Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.

The latest SMMT LCV registration figures for July show a year on year increase of just under 22%. At 28,578 units, this is the fourth consecutive month of growth in the new LCV market. Year to date registrations are up by 7,743 units (+4.3%) to 187,224.

With the September plate change, August registrations are likely to be significantly lower. However, if the growth in the new LCV market continues at the same rate, we can expect August registrations to be around 15,500.

Views from the block – a wave of optimism

Feedback from the industry contacts we’ve been speaking to over the past month suggests that the market is becoming more positive, with those representatives visiting dealers reporting that retail sales are on the up.

This wave of optimism is also being felt in the auction halls, with officials reporting that vehicles are selling more easily than they were the previous month. They also suggest that the downward guide price movements we have been making on higher-mileage vehicles (80k+) appears to be having a positive effect on trade buyers, helping to move some of the less desirable stock.

Damaged stock – it’s not just about the repair cost

Large volumes of damaged used LCVs remains a problem at auction halls up and down the country. Buyers are reluctant to bid on them unless the reserve prices reflect the additional risk and costs involved. However, the issue is not simply the cost of sale preparation.

The time required to get these vehicles ready for the forecourt is also a concern. Long lead times in bodyshops and delays obtaining spare parts often results in vehicles taking so long to prepare that two editions of the guide could be published before they are ready for sale, further reducing potential profit margins.

Buyer expectation remains high regarding documented service histories, particularly on vehicles being sold with an unexpired portion of the manufacturer’s warranty. There are also concerns around vehicles fitted with wet timing belts.

Given the high cost of replacing the belt at the prescribed service interval, and the potential consequential cost of belt failure, which can cause severe damage on some engine types, savvy trade buyers are understandably cautious. Evidence that the belt has been replaced or serviced in strict accordance with the manufacturer’s recommended servicing schedule, is increasingly essential.

Guide price changes in this edition

With guide price adjustments of -0.6% at 3 year / 60K and -0.8% overall, the used LCV market appears to be relatively stable during what is the traditional holiday seasonal lull in the auction halls.

This is largely true for the panel van guide prices, however, as the chart below clearly shows, larger movements have been necessary to 4×4 Pick-up and the EV sectors.

This chart, and those that follow below, are intended to give an indication of how the guide prices have moved in each sector.

As always, the devil is in the detail and we always recommend using our valuation products to determine the actual guide price movements of individual models.

Used light commercial vehicle cumulative guide price movements 3 years/60k (all LCV sectors)

This chart highlights the sharp fluctuations in guide price movements between 2020 and 2026.

Prices peaked in 2020 and 2021 during the height of the pandemic, before declining to more sustainable levels by late 2023.

Represented by the dashed line, the cumulative downward movement so far in 2026 is -8.9%.

It’s worth noting from this chart that in September last year used LCV prices increased as the market responded to stock shortages across most LCV sectors. Current stock levels are holding steady and auction feedback suggests they are likely to remain stable. It is highly unlikely that we will see a similar price spike in September this year.

Analysis of guide price performance of higher mileage vehicles

The following charts are based on our August research data.

They represent both the distribution of used LCVs sold across mileage bands from 1,000 up to 300,000 miles, and the sales performance within each mileage band. By comparing the two charts, which share exactly the same horizontal axis, it can be determined how accurate the guide prices are for each of the mileage bands and what proportion of the sales data is represented within each of them.

Recent trends in our research data suggests a shift in market sensitivity towards higher mileage vehicles. The chart below reflects the current performance against the mileage bands following the adjustments we’ve made for this edition.

Generally, we have increased the depreciation rate for mileage bands over 50K. The bars highlighted in green indicate where the performance levels fall between 98% and 102% of CAP Average.

Sectors – what you need to know

Best-selling city vans by sales volume

  • 42522 TRANSIT COURIER DIESEL (2014 – 2023) – 1.5 TDCi Trend Van (18-23)

  • 45293 TRANSIT COURIER PETROL (2014 – 2023) – 1.0 EcoBoost Leader Van (19-23)

  • 41923 CORSAVAN DIESEL (2014 – 2018) – 1.3 CDTi 16V 95ps ecoTEC Van (17-18)

  • 43639 FIESTA DIESEL (2018 – 2020) – 1.5 TDCi Van (18-20)

  • 42519 TRANSIT COURIER PETROL (2014 – 2023) – 1.0 EcoBoost Limited Van (18-23)

  • 26326 FIESTA DIESEL (2012 – 2017) – 1.6 TDCi ECOnetic Van (12-15)

  • 42521 TRANSIT COURIER DIESEL (2014 – 2023) – 1.5 TDCi Van (18-19)

  • 45294 TRANSIT COURIER DIESEL (2014 – 2023) – 1.5 TDCi Leader Van (19-23)

  • 30869 TRANSIT COURIER DIESEL (2014 – 2023) – 1.5 TDCi Van (14-18)

  • 43638 FIESTA PETROL (2018 —-) – 1.0 Ecoboost 125 Sport Van (18-)

Best-selling small vans by sales volume

  • 44398 PARTNER STANDARD DIESEL (2018 – 2024) – 1000 1.5 BlueHDi 100 Professional Van (19-21)

  • 56316 BERLINGO M DIESEL (2018 – 2024) – 1.5 BlueHDi 1000Kg Enterprise Ed 100ps 6 Speed S/S (22-24)

  • 34775 CADDY MAXI C20 DIESEL (2015 – 2020) – 2.0 TDI BlueMotion Tech 102PS Startline Van (15-20)

  • 56336 PARTNER STANDARD DIESEL (2018 – 2024) – 1000 1.5 BlueHDi 100 Professional Premium + Van (22-24)

  • 53412 BERLINGO M DIESEL (2018 – 2024) – 1.5 BlueHDi 1000Kg Enterprise Pro 100ps (21-22)

  • 55328 PARTNER STANDARD DIESEL (2018 – 2024) – 1000 1.5 BlueHDi 100 Professional Prem Van (21-22)

  • 42529 TRANSIT CONNECT 200 L1 DIESEL (2018 – 2021) – 1.5 EcoBlue 75ps Van (18-19)

  • 42534 TRANSIT CONNECT 200 L1 DIESEL (2018 – 2021) – 1.5 EcoBlue 120ps Limited Van (18-21)

  • 18445 BERLINGO L1 DIESEL (2008 – 2018) – 1.6 HDi 625Kg Enterprise 75ps (10-16)

  • 54104 PROACE CITY L1 DIESEL (2019 – 2025) – 1.5D 100 Icon Van (21-24)

Best-selling medium vans by sales volume

  • 42060 TRANSIT CUSTOM 280 L1 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps Low Roof Limited Van (17-23)

  • 42077 TRANSIT CUSTOM 300 L2 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps Low Roof Limited Van (17-23)

  • 42069 TRANSIT CUSTOM 300 L1 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps Low Roof Limited Van (17-23)

  • 44474 TRANSIT CUSTOM 300 L1 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 105ps High Roof Leader Van (19-23)

  • 44718 DISPATCH M DIESEL (2016 – 2024) – 1000 1.5 BlueHDi 100 Van Enterprise (19-21)

  • 45851 VIVARO L2 DIESEL (2019 – 2024) – 2900 1.5d 100PS Dynamic H1 Van (19-22)

  • 57322 TRANSIT CUSTOM 280 L1 DIESEL FWD (2023 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 136ps H1 Van Limited (23-)

  • 56184 VIVARO L2 DIESEL (2019 – 2024) – 2900 1.5d 100PS Prime H1 Van (22-24)

  • 44446 TRANSIT CUSTOM 300 L1 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 105ps Low Roof Leader Van (19-23)

  • 44447 TRANSIT CUSTOM 300 L1 DIESEL FWD (2017 – 2023) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps Low Roof Leader Van (19-23)

Best-selling large vans by sales volume

  • 44606 TRANSIT 350 L3 DIESEL RWD (2019 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps H3 Leader Van (19-24)

  • 37861 TRANSIT 350 L2 DIESEL FWD (2014 – 2019) – 2.0 TDCi 130ps H3 Van (16-19)

  • 49238 SPRINTER 315CDI L2 DIESEL RWD (2020 – 2023) – 3.5t H2 Progressive Van (20-23)

  • 49244 SPRINTER 315CDI L3 DIESEL RWD (2020 – 2023) – 3.5t H2 Progressive Van (20-23)

  • 44591 TRANSIT 350 L3 DIESEL FWD (2019 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps H3 Leader Van (19-24)

  • 44585 TRANSIT 350 L3 DIESEL FWD (2019 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps H2 Leader Van (19-24)

  • 45054 MASTER LWB DIESEL FWD (2019 – 2025) – LM35dCi 135 Business+ Medium Roof Van (19-23)

  • 44782 TRANSIT 350 L2 DIESEL RWD (2019 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps H3 Leader Van (19-24)

  • 44275 RELAY 35 L3 DIESEL (2014 – 2024) – 2.2 BlueHDi H2 Van 140ps Enterprise (19-23)

  • 44575 TRANSIT 350 L2 DIESEL RWD (2019 —-) – 2.0 EcoBlue 130ps H2 Leader Van (19-24)

Best-selling all terrain lifestyle/SUV by sales volume

  • 44067 RANGER DIESEL (2019 – 2022) – Pick Up Double Cab Wildtrak 2.0 EcoBlue 213 Auto (19-22)

  • 56276 RANGER DIESEL (2022 —-) – Pick Up Double Cab Wildtrak 2.0 EcoBlue 205 Auto (22-26)

  • 35006 RANGER DIESEL (2015 – 2019) – Pick Up Double Cab Wildtrak 3.2 TDCi 200 Auto (15-19)

  • 57529 RANGER DIESEL (2022 —-) – Pick Up Double Cab Tremor 2.0 EcoBlue 205 Auto (23-26)

  • 49099 HILUX DIESEL (2020 —-) – Invincible X D/Cab Pick Up 2.8 D-4D Auto (20-24)

  • 56277 RANGER DIESEL (2022 —-) – Pick Up D/Cab Wildtrak 3.0 EcoBlue V6 240 Auto (22-)

  • 39511 NAVARA DIESEL (2016 – 2022) – Double Cab Pick Up Tekna 2.3dCi 190 4WD Auto (16-19)

  • 35285 L200 DIESEL (2015 – 2019) – Double Cab DI-D 178 Barbarian 4WD Auto (15-19)

  • 44061 RANGER DIESEL (2019 – 2022) – Pick Up Double Cab Limited 1 2.0 EcoBlue 170 Auto (19-22)

  • 19135 NAVARA DIESEL (2010 – 2015) – Double Cab Pick Up Tekna 2.5dCi 190 4WD (10-15)

Best-selling All Terrain Workhorse by sales volume

  • 38351 HILUX DIESEL (2016 – 2020) – Active D/Cab Pick Up 2.4 D-4D (16-20)

  • 51383 HILUX DIESEL (2020 —-) – Active D/Cab Pick Up 2.4 D-4D (20-24)

  • 60938 DEFENDER 90 DIESEL (2020 —-) – 3.0 D250 Hard Top S Auto (24-)

  • 38349 HILUX DIESEL (2016 – 2020) – Active Extra Cab Pick Up 2.4 D-4D (16-20)

  • 38347 HILUX DIESEL (2016 – 2020) – Active Pick Up 2.4 D-4D (16-19)

  • 24963 D-MAX DIESEL (2012 – 2017) – 2.5TD Double Cab 4×4 (12-17)

  • 34510 DUSTER DIESEL (2015 – 2018) – 1.5 dCi 110 Laureate Commercial 4X4 (15-18)

  • 53754 DISCOVERY DIESEL (2020 —-) – 3.0 D300 R-Dynamic HSE Commercial Auto (21-23)

  • 51515 D-MAX DIESEL (2020 – 2025) – 1.9 Utility Single Cab 4×4 (20-25)

  • 45873 L200 DIESEL (2019 – 2021) – Double Cab DI-D 150 4Life 4WD (19-21)

Author: Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.

Ensure you always receive AM insights. Make us a preferred source of news on Google

Share This Article
Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *