New Environment Agency modelling shows the country needs around 120% of typical rainfall between September and March for every region to be out of drought by spring 2027.
Almost three-quarters of England remains in drought despite recent rainfall, with groundwater and reservoir levels continuing to fall.
Environment Agency Chief Executive Philip Duffy said: “A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer.”
He warned several reservoirs remain “concerningly low” and urged water companies to reduce leakage, follow drought plans and secure supplies for next year.
National reservoir storage stood at just 56.9% in early September, almost 20% below normal for the time of year. Twelve reservoirs or reservoir groups are now less than half full and eight are classified as exceptionally low.
Even if England receives exactly average rainfall between September and March, most areas are expected to remain in drought through the rest of 2026.
By January, most could move into recovery or return to normal but East Anglia could still be in drought at the beginning of April while Devon and Cornwall would remain in fragile recovery.
A drier winter would make the position considerably worse.
If rainfall reaches only 80% of average between September and March, East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, Thames Valley, Devon and Cornwall, Wessex, Solent and South Downs and the West Midlands could all still be in drought next April.
The Environment Agency puts the chance of that dry scenario at around one in four.
Last winter demonstrates the scale of rainfall that may be required. England received around 130% of its normal rainfall between September 2025 and March 2026, helping the country recover from the previous drought.
But spring then delivered only 56% of expected rainfall, followed by the driest July on record and five summer heatwaves.
Summer rainfall overall reached just 64% of normal and water demand rose by as much as 30% on the hottest days.
The Government says nine new reservoirs, water transfers and desalination schemes form part of its longer-term response.
For now, however, England’s immediate water security depends heavily on what falls from the sky over the next seven months.
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