The global liquified natural gas (LNG) trade could reach around 800 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2031 but growing supply concentration and infrastructure constraints could leave markets exposed to disruption.
A report by the International Energy Forum (IEF), working with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), says LNG has become a strategic part of the global energy system as it provides flexibility beyond fixed pipeline networks.
Global LNG trade has increased by more than four times since 2000, rising from 133bcm to more than 600bcm expected in 2026. But the report argues increasing volumes do not automatically translate into greater energy security.
The US, Australia and Qatar accounted for almost 64% of global exports in 2024, with the three countries expected to provide approximately two-thirds of global supply through 2031.
The report identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a major vulnerability, with almost 20% of LNG trade passing through. In 2024, around 75% of India’s LNG imports, 87% of Pakistan’s and 71% of Bangladesh’s were sourced through the waterway.
Christof van Agt Ross, Director of Energy Dialogue at the IEF, said: “The LNG market is global, but disruptions affect regions differently. The 2026 Hormuz disruption creates strong price responses in Europe and Asia, while developing economies are often priced out of the market, underscoring the market’s growing sensitivity to the duration of disruptions and tightening global LNG balances.”
The study also highlights ‘virtual chokepoints’, including feed-gas availability, domestic supply requirements and contractual restrictions that can limit LNG availability even when liquefaction capacity exists.
Future demand is expected to become increasingly diverse, with electricity demand, data centres, AI services and energy-intensive industries adding pressure to gas markets.
Jassim Alshirawi, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum, said: “The lesson from recent energy shocks is clear; LNG market Resilience is built through investment, spare capacity, diversified relationships, transparent markets and sustained dialogue between producers and consumers.”
The report says strengthening LNG security will require investment across the entire supply chain, including production, storage, shipping, ports, regasification terminals and pipelines.
It also calls for greater diversification of supply relationships, flexible contracts and shipping arrangements, improved market information and stronger international cooperation.
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