UK gas contracts set fresh four-year highs for the second consecutive week, with the October 26 contract opening at 195p/th on the morning of 9th September, up 3.5% against the previous close and 7.1% above the level seen during last week’s update. Q4 26 and Winter 26 followed at 197p/th and 194p/th, marking weekly gains of 5.9% and 4.9%. Power saw slightly milder movement, with power for October 26 delivery at £147/MWh, and Winter 26 at £153/MWh. However, Summer 27 and Winter 27 have both now settled above the psychologically significant £100/MWh threshold. The sharpest move came from crude, with Brent front month breaking above $100/bbl in early trading on Wednesday, a level last seen in late July. Europe’s key gas benchmark, the TTF, is marked at €79/MWh, the highest level of the war to date.
This fresh surge followed mild bearish movement midweek last week; Wednesday 3rd September saw a sell-off of 3% across the front of the gas curve. In a market in which funds are heavily long (more below), this owed more to profit-taking than to any reassessment of fundamentals, and the weekend reversed all of it.
The weekend saw escalation in the Middle East, in the form of an explicit tanker war. US Central Command released footage of three Iranian crude tankers being struck, one of them off Kharg Island, the hub from which just under 90% of Iranian oil exports originate. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper framed the action in nakedly economic terms, stating that “if you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost, taking out three of yours.” Gas opened 3% higher on Monday 7th, gained a further 4.4% on Tuesday afternoon after Iranian state media reported the capture of an unmanned US submersible at the mouth of the Strait, and opened higher again on Wednesday after US forces destroyed five IRGC-linked tankers overnight. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded by firing at US-related targets in Jordan, where 18 ballistic missiles were intercepted, while Houthi forces struck Saudi Aramco sites including a 400,000 b/d refinery.
In marked contrast with military events, diplomatic signals showed some modest positivity. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported “significant progress” in talks with Oman over administration of the Strait, though nothing has been signed and Tehran’s conditions are unchanged: removal of oil sanctions, release of frozen assets and an end to the naval blockade. Qatar has pressed for an unconditional reopening, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari telling CNN that “we are facing an industrial catastrophe if this continues.” In Washington, the Wall Street Journal reporting that deployments of some 50,000 troops have quietly been extended into 2027, even as President Trump told reporters “I don’t think it [the war] will be very much longer.” US diesel set a record $5.85 a gallon this week, some 55% above its pre-conflict level.
LNG exports saw one positive development for the week, with Qatar exporting its first LNG cargo via the Strait since July. The Al Marrouna transited into the Gulf of Oman signalling for Bin Qasim in Pakistan, notably leaving its AIS transponder active throughout, and several further Qatari tankers have turned back towards the Persian Gulf in what may indicate QatarEnergy positioning for a resumption of exports. For context, the first six months of the war have seen just 18 Qatari LNG transits against 509 over the same period last year, commodity crossings have averaged around ten a day over the last ten days (the lowest run since May, against a pre-war norm of 130 to 140), and QatarEnergy’s force majeure cancellations now extend into early November.
European storage continues to give support to market bulls. Aggregate fullness reached 67.12% on the latest reporting day, still the lowest on record relative to time of year and materially below the previous low of 69.51% set in 2021, a year whose tight market set the scene for the crisis that followed. Germany – Europe’s largest country by storage capacity – sits at 54.5% full, from which even matching the fastest German refill on record would leave the country at just 69% entering the heating season. Norwegian maintenance continues to weigh on flows from Norway, with exit nominations at 294mcm/d and Gassco extending its Troll outage to 13th September with an uncertain end date, while French unions have filed strike notices at EDF, Fluxys and Elengy for 15th September.
Investment funds cut their net long position on the TTF for a second consecutive week, taking net length down 8.9TWh to 210.5TWh, following the 34TWh reduction reported in our last update. However, funds are likely banking profits on the strongest rally of the war rather than positioning for its end, and net length remains far above anything seen before the conflict, when the 2026 peak was 124.8TWh.
Copyright © 2026 Energy Live News LtdELN