This week has seen UK gas and power prices strike fresh highs this week, as the US and Iran exchange eleven consecutive days of strikes. Gas for delivery during August 2026 struck 150p/th, a high not seen since 19th March – the day after the Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest single LNG production facility. At £125/MWh, the power contract for the same period struck a long-term high. The Winter 26 season saw similar gains, with power setting a high last seen in April 2023. Europe’s key gas benchmark, the TTF, has breached not one but two psychological support levels since last week’s update, crossing the €55/MWh and €60/MWh thresholds in just five trading days.
In the Middle East, US Central Command has carried out several days of strikes on what it describes as “military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.” Iran has carried out repeated strikes on US assets in the Gulf, including air bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. An Iranian spokesman has said that “currently there are no negotiations; it’s only possible for there to be an exchange of messages… We don’t have any new message; our new message is that the enemy violated the memorandum and should implement it.”
The CEO of Norwegian energy giant Equinor has stated he does not believe Europe can reach 80% gas storage fullness ahead of Winter 2026. EU aggregate fullness sits at 54.2% as per AGSI data, 11 percentage points down on 2025, and with filling trajectories for the North West of the continent leading to further divergence by early September. Even 80% would represent lower fullness than the continent experienced in recent years, with last year’s 83% fullness on 1st November 25 itself representing a recent low and a source of midwinter volatility during the cold snap of January 2026.
In the US, Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the south-east of the US, and may build strength over coming days before making landfall in New Orleans, Louisiana, by Wednesday of next week. According to forecasters, “a tropical storm watch is in effect for Ochlockonee River, Florida, westward to the Jefferson / Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana.” Plaquemines Parish is home to the LNG production facility of the same name, and the state of Louisiana is has four operating terminal; Sabine Pass, Cameron, Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines. As such, hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico can prove disruptive to US LNG production and shipping.
Investment funds, whose activities can themselves be a key driver of gas prices, increased their net long positions on the TTF to the highest level in six weeks, positioning to capitalise on expected further gains in price in the days and weeks to come. Adding a huge 59TWh of longs, and exiting 6TWh of shorts, funds increased net length on the TTF to 247TWh.
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