UK gas and power prices have edged upwards over the last week, as a peace settlement in the Middle East remains elusive. Gas and power contracts for delivery during June, Q3 26 and Winter 26 hit the highest level seen since the start of the US / Iran ceasefire. Movement has been more limited further along the curve.
Sources have reported that “work is underway to put the finishing touches on a draft agreement between Washington and Tehran,” and that the Pakistani Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the final formula of the agreement. US President Donald Trump also indicated that talks with Iran were proving fruitful, telling reporters on 20th May that “we’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens. Either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen.”
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, at least 54 ships transited the Strait between May 11th and May 17th, an increase of over 100% on the week prior. However, this remains a fraction of the 130 vessels per day typically making the journey pre-war.
In the US, production at train 6 of Corpus Christi LNG is now underway, with 6 of the 7 trains at the facility now operational. Train 7 is due to come online later this year. When complete, Corpus Christi’s production capacity will be 25mtpa, making it one of the world’s largest LNG export facilities, further cementing the US’s position as the world’s largest LNG producer.
The latest Commitments of Traders report confirms investment funds have again increased their net long positions on the Dutch TTF. Adding 11TWh further long positions, and trimming 7TWh of shorts, funds are now at 295TWh net length on Europe’s key benchmark, the highest net long position since the ceasefire between the US and Iran. European gas storage fullness remains at a historic low relative to time of year, with injections still disincentivised by a futures market offering higher prices for Summer 26 than for the forthcoming winter.
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