Six out of 10 (62%) used car dealers believe at least one existing major European car maker will be driven out of business in the next decade, according to April’s Startline Used Car Tracker.
The research, which includes views from 61 dealers, points to the cost of investing in electrification as the most common concern, cited by 40% of dealers, followed by the inability to compete with lower-cost vehicles from Chinese new entrants, mentioned by 32%.
A further 26% believe European brands will struggle to keep pace with emerging technologies such as autonomous driving, while 10% say weakening brand loyalty among buyers could undermine established manufacturers.
However, opinion is not universally negative.
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Mergers and acquisitions
Around 21% of dealers believe European carmakers will survive through mergers or acquisitions, while 18% say they are already becoming more competitive with Chinese rivals.
Another 18% point to brand and design strength as a safeguard, and 8% believe tariffs or other protections will help.
Paul Burgess, chief executive at Startline Motor Finance, said the industry is facing a period of intense pressure.
He said: “The level of competition in the new car market prompted by new entrants alongside the very high degree of investment required to electrify means this might be the toughest moment many long-established and storied European car makers have faced in living memory.
“They are under huge pressure.”
He added that the findings suggest a majority of dealers do not expect all current manufacturers to survive into the mid-2030s, although some see consolidation and brand strength as potential stabilising factors.
“It’s also interesting that almost one in five believe European car makers are already becoming more competitive with their Chinese counterparts,” he said, noting that some brands appear to be embracing electrification as an opportunity.
The research also found that 49% of used car dealers believe Japanese and Korean manufacturers face similar levels of threat.
“The disruption we are seeing affects all established manufacturers and it is not just European businesses that are facing an existential crisis,” Burgess added.