With conflict in the Middle East threatening flows through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts are warning Brent crude could surge towards $100–130 per barrel if disruption escalates.
Against that backdrop, FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox is calling for an immediate commitment to freeze duty.
Rachel Reeves is about to deliver her Spring Statement and Mr Cox warned cost pressure on drivers would be too much if duty is raised.
In light of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, Rachel Reeves must declare in her Spring Statement that Fuel Duty will remain frozen for the duration of her Parliament and cancel any planned increases in the Autumn Budget.
“This move would not only be economically prudent—stimulating GDP growth and alleviating inflationary pressure—but it would also provide some much-needed political relief to this government, known for its frequent U-turns.”
Howard Cox, FairFuelUK
Around 20% of global oil supply moves through the strait. Even short-term slowdowns and rising tanker insurance costs are enough to jolt markets.
Crude makes up roughly 30–40% of the UK pump price.
Fuel duty at 52.95p per litre and 20% VAT account for more than half. A sustained rise to $100 could add 10–20p per litre within weeks.
Even $90 oil would likely mean a 5–10p increase, with diesel typically rising faster.
Copyright © 2026 Energy Live News LtdELN