The new LCV market enjoyed a 1.7% end of 2025 boom in new registrations, writes Ken Brown, LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.
There were 315,422 new LCVs registered in 2025, that’s 36,412 fewer new LCVs, representing a 10.3% decline in the market compared to 2024, and 5,578 units short of the SMMT’s end of year forecast,
Registrations were down month on month from January to November. However, in December, the shortest month of the year for LCV sales activity and with many key staff taking extended Christmas breaks, somehow there was a miraculous +1.7% increase in registrations compared to 2024.
Ideally, this late surge in December reflects several large fleet deals being finalised, which would be a welcome development for the used LCV wholesale market as de‑fleeted vehicles begin to filter through the auctions.
A more concerning possibility is that it signals the nearly-new sector is about to face a wave of pre-registered stock being advertised at heavily discounted prices.
That said, this is unlikely to affect guide prices unless it starts to influence trade sale market prices.
Without that shift, the guide will continue to reflect the genuine wholesale market rather than fluctuations in retail advertising activity.
Views from the auction block
The opinions and market insights we gain from speaking to auction officials at the sharp end of remarketing are invaluable and form a crucial part of our research process.
We share a vested interest in ensuring that guide prices reflect the market as accurately as possible. As we begin the new year, we have scheduled over a hundred meetings with our auction contacts. We appreciate the opportunity to meet with them regularly and highly value the expertise they contribute to the guide.
Auction officials we’ve spoken to report a busy start to the new year, with particularly strong bidding on clean vehicles requiring minimal preparation. Driven by the ongoing shortage of stock, larger LCV dealers are paying what one contact described as “eye‑watering amounts,” while smaller buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to compete.
Trade buyers are becoming increasingly cautious about vehicle condition. Despite the limited availability of used LCV stock, many are reluctant to purchase damaged units, especially those needing substantial bodywork and mechanical repair work. Parts shortages, extended lead times, and rising repair costs are frequently cited as key deterrents.
As a result, the price gap between clean vehicles and those with damage continues to widen, creating a clear two‑tier market.
Competition remains strong for clean vehicles requiring minimal preparation, while damaged stock is proving far more difficult to move. Traders with in‑house bodyshop and paint facilities, however, may be well positioned to capitalise on this shift by acquiring damaged vehicles at a discount and refurbishing them more cost‑effectively.
Buyers are also showing scepticism toward vehicles that still carry a portion of the manufacturer’s warranty, due to extended franchise dealer workshop lead times for warranty repair work and, in some cases, a lack of technical expertise within certain dealer networks to resolve issues promptly.
Wet‑belt engines are proving especially difficult to sell, given the high cost of belt replacement and the risk of consequential damage. Oil pick‑up blockages, oil starvation and total belt failure remain significant concerns for buyers assessing long‑term reliability.
This isn’t just about repair costs. Long established, reputable used LCV dealers are also reluctant to buy them, as doing so could risk damaging their business reputation.
The Top 20 ICE (internal combustion engine) model ranges, ranked by sales volume, offer a clear snapshot of the used LCV sector.
With an average performance of 99.4% against guide prices, demand from trade buyers remained notably strong.
The Top 20 BEV (battery electric) model ranges, ranked by sales volume, achieved an average performance of 94.8% against guide, continuing their trend of under‑performance.BEVs remain price‑sensitive, and trade buyers are still cautious about buying more expensive stock that could occupy spaces on their forecourts, when ICE models can be turned around much more quickly.
Although prices in this sector have shown signs of stabilising, the availability of sufficient ICE models in the used LCV market continues affect retail buyer demand for BEV models. All the while this situation continues, we can some degree of price fluctuation in the BEV sector.
Looking ahead
Despite the doom, gloom and wider economic uncertainty, demand for used LCVs remains healthy, as we’ve seen so many times before during recessions and economic downturns. Retail demand seems to be looking after itself for now, while the supply of used stock into the trade remains a significant challenge.
That said, and for now at least, guide prices remain stable. There is a dubious balance between supply, which could shift in either direction at any time.
The timing of large de-fleets, the lifeblood of the used LCV wholesale market, is becoming harder to predict. Leasing companies tell us that contracts are being extended on an ad‑hoc basis, and there is a growing sense that operators have realised, partly as a result of the pandemic, that modern vehicles are more durable and can be run cost‑effectively for much longer periods.
Author: Ken Brown is LCV valuations editor at Solera Cap HPI.