London is on course to become Britain’s first diesel-free city with some filling stations in the capital likely to stop stocking the fuel before the end of the decade, according to new analysis.
In its report, The Death of Diesel, NewAutoMotive – an NGO that works to increase the pace of the clean energy transition in road transport – finds the diesel car parc has already fallen 21% from its national peak, and that the sharpest declines are concentrated in London, where the reduction is described as broadly based across boroughs – driven by air quality policies and vehicle replacement trends.
NewAutoMotive identifies Camden as the London area that has recorded the steepest drop in diesel car numbers, recording a 64.6% fall since peak diesel, with Wandsworth, the City of London, Merton and Lambeth close behind.
London is on course to become Britain’s first diesel-free city with some filling stations in the capital likely to stop stocking the fuel before the end of the decade, according to new analysis.
In its report, The Death of Diesel, NewAutoMotive – an NGO that works to increase the pace of the clean energy transition in road transport – finds the diesel car parc has already fallen 21% from its national peak, and that the sharpest declines are concentrated in London, where the reduction is described as broadly based across boroughs – driven by air quality policies and vehicle replacement trends.
NewAutoMotive identifies Camden as the London area that has recorded the steepest drop in diesel car numbers, recording a 64.6% fall since peak diesel, with Wandsworth, the City of London, Merton and Lambeth close behind.
The pace of change in the capital is being driven by two pressures: the ‘near-total collapse’ of new diesel car sales and the steady rise in scrappage as older vehicles reach end-of-life.
NewAutoMotive notes that new diesel cars now account for less than 5% of the UK’s new car market, while vehicles are typically scrapped at around 17 years old, meaning the large diesel cohorts sold in the early 2010s are now heading towards scrappage.
Forecourt demand slides, raising supply questions
It said the changing fleet mix is already feeding through into forecourt demand. Using average diesel sales per filling station, NewAutoMotive reports that London’s diesel sales have fallen 39% since the start of 2020 and are now lower than during the 2021 lockdown period.
With diesel vehicle numbers already relatively low in the capital and continuing to fall, the report concludes some London filling stations are likely to stop stocking diesel before the end of the decade, as retailers respond to declining demand and repurpose sites for EV charging and other revenue streams.
“It is highly likely that as diesel vehicles get scarcer, filling station owners will question how much, if any, diesel fuel they should stock. At some future point, diesel simply won’t be available at the majority of filling stations,” the report states.
EVs overtake diesel by 2030
Nationally, NewAutoMotive projects diesel car numbers will fall to just over five million by 2030, with electric cars overtaking diesel cars that year, before collapsing to fewer than a quarter of a million by 2035.
Based on those trends, the report says London will be the first city to “empty of diesel cars and vans”, while Scotland is positioned to become the first diesel-free British nation.
While diesel vans have continued to rise nationally, reaching 4.4 million in Great Britain by mid-2025, London is again bucking the trend. The report shows diesel van numbers are already falling across much of the capital, again led by Camden, reinforcing its expectation that the capital will be the first place where diesel becomes functionally obsolete across both private and light commercial fleets.
London’s shift is also reshaping diesel ownership patterns beyond the M25. The report describes a clear “urban-to-rural” migration of older diesel cars, with vehicles displaced from the capital increasingly sold on to more rural areas with fewer restrictions.
However, it adds that the effects of London’s policies could extend into surrounding constituencies, citing sharp declines in older diesel ownership in parts of the south east where residents may still need to drive into London, influencing purchasing decisions.
For motorists, the report warns that as diesel vehicles become scarcer, residual values are likely to keep falling, raising the risk of diesel cars becoming “stranded assets” if fuel becomes less convenient to access and resale demand weakens further
Gordon Balmer, executive director at the Petrol Retailers Association told AM: “At present, our members have no definitive plans to cease selling diesel. Nonetheless, they consistently track evolving customer preferences and adjust their services in response. This is reflected in investments such as expanded retail shops, EV charging facilities and first class valeting services.”
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