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Europe is recalibrating its approach to electric vehicle (EV) adoption as China extends its lead and the United States falls behind, according to new analysis from EY.
The latest EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an AI-powered model tracking light duty vehicle sales through 2050, suggests battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales will exceed 50% across Europe, China and the US by 2034.
Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are expected to retain around 30% market share until 2036, acting as a transitional technology.
China is projected to hit a 50% share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) as early as 2025, driven by strong policy support, robust infrastructure and lower vehicle costs.
In contrast, Europe’s EV sales are expected to surpass petrol and diesel by 2028, crossing 50% by 2032.
The US is forecast to reach the same milestone only in 2039, five years later than previously projected, amid delays in policy, high costs and gaps in charging infrastructure.
Ireland is showing signs of strong recovery in its EV market. According to the Central Statistics Office, registrations rose 64% in July 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.
The Society of the Irish Motor Industry reported a 70% year-on-year increase in battery electric registrations in August. Government measures such as grants, toll discounts and investment in charging infrastructure are supporting this rebound.
Julia Ann Corkery, EY Ireland Partner and Transport Leader, said: “Globally, the EV transition is advancing but unevenly. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem. Europe is on a steady path under strict emissions targets, however, the pace of adoption will be slower than was previously anticipated, with hybrid technologies playing an increasingly important role in bridging the gap to full electrification in the short to medium term. The US meanwhile faces policy uncertainty, high costs and infrastructure gaps.”
In Europe, stricter CO₂ limits and affordable EV models are expected to accelerate uptake after 2027, with BEV market share surpassing 95% by 2041.
In the US, hybrids are expected to peak at 34% of sales by 2034, while China will remain the largest EV market globally despite a gradual decline in market share.
Europe recalibrates, China accelerates and US slows in EV transition appeared first on Energy Live News.