Forget calm seas – the energy market is still riding waves of volatility, driven by geopolitics, extreme weather and a dash of policy uncertainty.
That was the takeaway from a great ELCC panel featuring Louise Ward of npower Business Solutions, Tejal Shah of Flagship Energy and Charles Ramsay of TotalEnergies.
Tejal Shah pointed squarely to the global nature of the storm. “Geopolitics, economics – they’ve all played a massive part,” she said, citing the end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine and the UK’s dependence on international LNG flows.
While she didn’t downplay the role of policy, she was clear: “This year, it’s been mostly global drivers, not domestic levers.”
Louise Ward agreed policy will shape the long term, particularly around non-commodity costs and net zero targets.
But right now, the real disruptors are renewables and weather. “Insane levels of solar are swinging the day-ahead market,” she said.
That’s likely to intensify as more renewables flood the system.
Charles Ramsay added another layer: storage.
With temperatures climbing and French nuclear outages looming, he warned supply could tighten fast. “The market’s on edge,” he said.
“Even a ceasefire in the Middle East has eased nerves, but fundamentals remain fragile.”
The UK’s limited gas storage leaves it especially exposed, and LNG competition with Asia adds further pressure.
So what’s ahead?
Tejal predicted relative calm over summer, but a choppy autumn with Norwegian gas maintenance, contract locking and colder conditions stoking fresh volatility. “Winter demand and wind levels will be key,” she said. “Low wind could send prices flying.”
And AI? Not yet a market mover, but all agreed it’s looming. “Demand from data centres is coming,” said Charles, “but the impact isn’t here yet.”
What about flexibility? It’s not shifting markets now but the potential is clear.
“It’s the direction we need,” added Louise, “especially for customers to benefit from within-day price swings.”
Bottom line? Despite a decade of market reforms, it’s still oil prices, global shocks and gas flows calling the shots.
For now.
Volatility is the new normal say market experts appeared first on Energy Live News.