Asia’s biggest carbon emitters face mounting challenges in hitting their 2030 climate targets.
Their progress or not, has been revealed in inaugural Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) submitted under the UN’s Paris Agreement framework. These reports, which track progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), expose a region grappling with slow transitions to renewable energy and patchy carbon policies.
According to S&P Global’s forecasts, major nations have contrasting issues.
China and India: Mixed progress
China, the world’s largest emitter, has cut its carbon intensity by 50.9% from 2005 levels as of 2021, closing in on its 65% reduction goal for 2030. The country has already achieved its 1,200 GW solar and wind capacity target six years early, yet it barely meets its NDC carbon intensity requirements, highlighting the difficulty of balancing renewable energy growth with actual emissions reductions.
India lags further behind, reducing carbon intensity by 36% as of 2020, falling short of its 45% NDC target. Despite renewables accounting for 46.5% of its installed power capacity, analysts warn that converting capacity into reliable energy while building storage and grid infrastructure remains a major hurdle.
Indonesia: Renewable roadblocks
Indonesia, Asia’s third-largest emitter, is far from its NDC target to cut emissions by 31.89% by 2030. Current forecasts suggest emissions will be capped at 2,176 million mtCO2e, well above its 1,809 million mtCO2e goal. Renewable energy progress is a sticking point, with renewables comprising just 16% of primary energy supplies in 2022.
Japan and Australia: Contrasting trajectories
Japan faces significant challenges in meeting its 46% emissions reduction target by 2030. Current forecasts project emissions at 937 million mtCO2e—far above the 760 million mtCO2e NDC target. Delays in key carbon policies, including its emissions trading scheme, are impeding progress.
Australia, meanwhile, is closer to its 43% reduction target, thanks to stricter emissions regulations under the Albanese government. However, forecasts suggest the country may still fall slightly short, underscoring the difficulty of sustaining rapid decarbonisation.
Looking ahead
Asia’s decarbonisation drive requires faster renewables deployment, robust carbon markets, and significant policy reforms. Without these steps, meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals will remain an uphill battle
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