The used car market remained resilient in early October, with average values falling by just -0.5% in the first 10 days, according to the latest data from Cap HPI.
Projections suggest a more modest total decline of -1% by the end of the month, compared to an average October drop of 1.6%. Last year saw a sharper -4.2% decrease over the same period.
Despite an uptick in supply since September, there is still a noticeable shortage of three- to four-year-old vehicles, keeping demand relatively stable.
Jeremy Yea, senior valuations editor at Cap HPI, commenting on the current trends, said: “October is set to bring a rise in wholesale market volumes, driven by fleet returns and part-exchanges following September’s new car registrations. While there may be some downward pressure on used car values, the anticipated decline is much milder than last year.”
Yea also cautioned that it will be crucial for remarketers to act prudently to maintain price stability.
“As we enter the final quarter, caution lingers after the steep 10.5% decline in used car values from October to December 2023. However, 2024 offers a more positive outlook. Unlike last year’s large-scale defleets, market conditions appear steadier, supported by stable interest rates and easing cost-of-living pressures.”
The performance of electric vehicles (EVs) has been a bright spot, with values for three-year-old EVs rising by an average of 0.3%. Models like the Citroën C4 Electric, Nissan Leaf, Vauxhall Corsa Electric, and Peugeot 208 Electric have all seen increases.
However, Cap HPI noted that aggressive discounting on new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could put pressure on late-model values in the coming months.
“In the lead-up to the end of the year, Cap Live will continue to track the fluctuations in used car pricing,” Yea added. “These months are known for their interesting and unpredictable market trends, and we will provide concise updates to reflect the ever-changing landscape.”